Volume 38, Issue 8 e15258
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on the connection between meteorological and hydrological drought

Jianyu Fu

Jianyu Fu

Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Hong Kong, China

Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

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Bingjun Liu

Corresponding Author

Bingjun Liu

School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China

Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

Correspondence

Bingjun Liu, Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

Email: [email protected]

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Yang Lu

Yang Lu

Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

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Yuling Chen

Yuling Chen

School of Civil Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

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Fang Yang

Fang Yang

Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Hong Kong, China

Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Guangzhou, China

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Yong He

Yong He

Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Hong Kong, China

Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Guangzhou, China

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Wenhao Jia

Wenhao Jia

Key Laboratory of Water Security Guarantee in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area of Ministry of Water Resources, Hong Kong, China

Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute, Guangzhou, China

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Yun Zhang

Yun Zhang

Guangdong Hehai Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Guangzhou, China

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First published: 21 August 2024
Citations: 2

Abstract

Understanding the transition from meteorological to hydrological drought is essential for accurately predicting hydrological droughts. However, the factors driving this transition are intricate, and a comprehensive understanding of how direct human activities influence this shift in drought is lacking. In this study, we initially explored the spatiotemporal correlation between the occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts. Subsequently, we formulated multiple hydrological replenishment scenarios using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to assess the environmental impact of the transition from meteorological to hydrological droughts. The Xijiang River Basin (XRB), the primary tributary of the Pearl River basin, was selected as the study area. Our results identified 91 meteorological droughts in the XRB, and only 66 hydrological droughts from 1978 to 2018. The transition rate from meteorological to hydrological drought demonstrated large spatial variability, with a basin-average rate of 56% and the lowest transition rate of 45% in the headstream The transition from meteorological to hydrological drought was mostly rapid between November and December (~2 months), but can be prolonged during spring (about 3–5 months) and winter (around 7–9 months). Additionally, analysis of regeneration scenarios indicated that human activity has mitigated drought severity over recent decades. The primary driver affecting drought duration and frequency during the transition from meteorological to hydrological droughts shows conspicuous spatial disparities in densely populated areas. Although human activity significantly contributes to drought duration and severity compared to climate change during the transition in the headstream, its effects are more pronounced downstream in terms of drought duration and frequency. One plausible explanation is that increased water consumption downstream has considerably prolonged drought progression, whereas water management has counteractive effects on drought progression due to climate change in the headstream. Our findings offer valuable insights into the transition process from meteorological to hydrological droughts in the presence of extensive human activities.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in China Meteorological Data Service Centre at https://data.cma.cn/en.

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