Volume 48, Issue 5 e70016
Research Article

Compact Temporal Causal Algorithm for Modeling Prediction in the Green Ammonia Production Process

Rui Wang

Rui Wang

Science and Technology Innovation Center, CGN Wind Power Co. Ltd, 188 Fengtai Road Street, Beijing, 100071 China

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Lili Ma

Lili Ma

Science and Technology Innovation Center, CGN Wind Power Co. Ltd, 188 Fengtai Road Street, Beijing, 100071 China

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Yukui Ren

Yukui Ren

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

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Hang Zhao

Hang Zhao

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

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Li Zhou

Li Zhou

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

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Lei Luo

Corresponding Author

Lei Luo

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

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Xu Ji

Corresponding Author

Xu Ji

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

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Ge He

Corresponding Author

Ge He

School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 Wangjiang Road Street, Chengdu, 610065 China

E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]

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First published: 21 April 2025

Abstract

Because of the complexity of green ammonia production, identifying useful information from massive data to construct a streamlined and interpretable prediction model is a challenge. This paper proposed an improved transfer entropy method and enhanced the model in capturing causal relationships between variables. Furthermore, a compact temporal causal identification algorithm was introduced, combining transfer entropy and direct causal identification. This algorithm integrates the advantages of both methods, enabling rapid identification of clear causal pathways in high-dimensional variable spaces. In industrial validation of the actual green ammonia process, the average number of predictive variables based on compact temporal-dependent variables and temporal Markov blankets were 3.341 and 10.171, respectively, yielding average prediction accuracies (R2) of 0.887 and 0.905. The method proposed provides new solutions for modeling prediction in green ammonia processes.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.

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