Recent developments in China's labor market: Labor shortage, rising wages and their implications
Yuming Cui
School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China
Search for more papers by this authorJingjing Meng
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Changrong Lu
School of International Relations, Sun Yat-Sen University, China
Correspondence
Changrong Lu, School of International Relations, Sun Yat-Sen University, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorYuming Cui
School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China
Search for more papers by this authorJingjing Meng
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Changrong Lu
School of International Relations, Sun Yat-Sen University, China
Correspondence
Changrong Lu, School of International Relations, Sun Yat-Sen University, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
China's abundant supply of cheap labor has played an important role in its remarkable economic and social development. Recently, however, China has experienced a labor shortage and rising wages, implying that the country's long-lasting competitive advantage based on its “unlimited” labor supply and low costs is vanishing. We find that structural demographic changes, regional economic growth disparities and the household registration system may have caused the labor shortage. Furthermore, China's continued low wages, relatively low labor share of gross national income, declining proportion of household consumption to GDP, and productivity improvements as well as increasing unit labor costs can be used to explain the recent wage increases. The dramatic development of its labor market signals that China is entering a new stage of economic development. The country's prior successful model of economic development needs to be adjusted to adapt to the new situation in its labor market to achieve sustainable economic development.
REFERENCES
- Akamatsu, K. (1962). A historical pattern of economic growth in developing countries. Journal of Developing Economies, 1(1), 3–25.
10.1111/j.1746-1049.1962.tb01020.x Google Scholar
- Bai, C., & Qian, Z. (2010). The factor income distribution in China: 1978–2007. China Economic Review, 21(4), 650–670.
- Baker, M., & Orsmond, D. (2010). Household consumption trends in China. Bulletin of Reserve Bank of Australia, March quarter.
- Banister, J. (2005). Manufacturing earnings and compensation in China, Monthly Labor Review (August), 22–40.
- Banister, J., & Cook, G. (2011). China's employment and compensation costs in manufacturing through 2008, Monthly Labor Review (March), 39–52.
- Cai, F. (2009). Future demographic dividend—tapping the source of China's economic growth. China Economist, 2009(4), 17–24.
- Cai, F. (2010). Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China”. China Economic Journal, 3(2), 107–119.
10.1080/17538963.2010.511899 Google Scholar
- Cai, F., Wang, D., & Du, Y. (2002). Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions. China Economic Review, 13(2–3), 197–212.
- Ceglowski, J., & Golub, S. (2011). Does China still have a labor cost advantage? (CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3579).
- Chan, K., & Zhang, L. (1999). The hukou system and rural-urban migration in China: Processes and changes. China Quarterly, 160, 818–855.
- Cui, Y., & Lu, C. (2018). Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 00, 1–18.
- Dollar, D. (2013). China's rebalancing: Lessons from East Asian economic history (John L. Thornton China Centre Working Paper Series). Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.
- Ge, S., & Yang, T. (2010). Labor market developments in China: A neoclassical view (IZA Discussion Paper No. 5377). Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn.
- Golley, J., & Meng, X. (2011). Has China run out of surplus labour? China Economic Review, 22(4), 555–572.
- Huang, Y., Loungani, P., & Wang, G. (2014). Minimum wages and firm employment: Evidence from China (IMF Working Paper WP/14/184). International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- International Labour Organization (2015). Global Wage Report 2014/15. Geneva: ILO.
- Knight, J., Song, L., & Jia, H. (1999). Chinese rural migrants in urban enterprises: Three perspectives. Journal of Development Studies, 35(3), 73–104.
- Knight, J., Deng, Q., & Li, S. (2011). The puzzle of migrant labour shortage and rural labour surplus in China. China Economic Review, 22(4), 585–600.
- Lebrun, I., & Pérez, E. (2011). Real unit labor costs differentials in EMU: How big, how benign and how reversible? (IMF Working Paper WP/11/109). International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Lewis, W. A. (1954). Economic development with unlimited supplies of labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139–191.
10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x Google Scholar
- Li, H., Li, L., Wu, B., & Xiong, Y. (2012). The end of cheap Chinese labour. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(4), 57–74.
- Liu, D. (2015). Has the Chinese economy passed the Lewis turning point? Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 20(3), 404–422.
- Liu, Y. (2013). Labour market matching and unemployment in urban China. China Economic Review, 24, 108–128.
- Liu, Z. (2005). Institution and Inequality: the Hukou System in China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 33, 133–157.
- Ma, G., & Wang, Y. (2010). China's high saving rate: Myth and reality (BIS Working Papers No. 312). Bank for International Settlements, Basel.
- Minami, R., & Ma, X. (2010). The Lewis turning point of Chinese economy: Comparison with Japanese experience. China Economic Journal, 3(2), 163–179.
10.1080/17538963.2010.511912 Google Scholar
- Park, A., & Wang, D. (2010). Migration and urban poverty and inequality in China (IZA, Discussion Paper No. 4877). Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn.
- Pi, J., & Zhang, P. (2016). Hukou system reforms and skilled-unskilled wage inequality in China. China Economic Review, 41, 90–103.
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. New York: UN.
- Vendryes, T. (2011). Migration constraints and development: Hukou and capital accumulation in China. China Economic Review, 22, 669–692.
- Wang, D., Cai, F., & Zhang, G. (2008). Employment and wage determination of rural migrant workers: The role of education and training. China Economic Quarterly, 7(4), 1131–1148. (in Chinese).
- Wang, X. (2008). Research on group features of new generation of rural migrant workers: Taking the Pearl River Delta as an example. Journal of Guangxi University for Nationalities (Philosophy and Social Science Edition), 30(4), 51–56 (in Chinese).
- Wei, C., & Qian, X. (2012). Regional disparity of labor's share in China: Evidence and explanation (MPRA Paper No. 42123). Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- Wei, S., Xie, Z., & Zhang, X. (2017). From “made in China” to “innovated in China”: Necessity, prospect, and challenges. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(1), 49–70.
- Yang, T., Chen, W., & Monarch, R. (2010). Rising wages: Has China lost its global labour advantage? Pacific Economic Review, 15(4), 482–504.
- Yang, X. (2017). The impact of urban public services quality on population mobility. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2017(2), 104–114. (in Chinese).
- Yao, Y., & Zhang, K. (2010). Has China passed the Lewis turning point? A structural estimation based on provincial data. China Economic Journal, 3(2), 155–162.
10.1080/17538963.2010.511908 Google Scholar
- Zhang, H. (2010). The Hukou system's constraints on migrant workers' job mobility in Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 21, 51–64.
- Zhang, X., Yang, J., & Wang, S. (2010). China has reached the Lewis turning point (IFPRI Discussion Paper 00977). International Food Policy Research Institute.
- Zhao, L., & Huang, Y. (2010). China's labour shortage in the after-crisis era. East Asian Policy, 2(3), 5–13.