REGULAR ARTICLE
The measurement of disaster risk: An example from tropical cyclones in the Philippines
Rio Yonson,
Ilan Noy, JC Gaillard,
Corresponding Author
Rio Yonson
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Correspondence
Rio Yonson, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, P. O. Box 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorRio Yonson,
Ilan Noy, JC Gaillard,
Corresponding Author
Rio Yonson
Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Correspondence
Rio Yonson, School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, P. O. Box 600, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
What determines disaster fatalities? We develop a tool to estimate tropical cyclone-induced fatalities in the Philippine provinces, and to explain the variability of these fatalities across provinces using an evidence-based approach. We construct a new provincial-level panel dataset, and use statistical methods to assess the influence of socioeconomic vulnerability (i.e., levels of economic and social development, urbanization, governance), exposure (i.e., population, topography, and geography), and hazard characteristics (i.e., rainfall volume and wind speed) on the resulting fatalities from tropical cyclones. We find strong evidence that socioeconomic development and good local governance reduces disaster fatalities, while unplanned urbanization is associated with more fatalities. Exposure, including topography, and tropical cyclone strength are likewise important determinants of fatalities. However, disaster fatalities appear to be influenced much more by socioeconomic vulnerability and exposure, than by the hazard itself. We quantify this difference in order to contribute to policy planning at national and subnational scales.
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