Colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in East Asia, 1990–2030
Jian Zhang
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Shijie Zhu
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Correspondence
Shijie Zhu, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
Email: [email protected]
Yang Hong, Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110004, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorChunlong Liu
Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Search for more papers by this authorXiong Xiao
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Search for more papers by this authorHaojie Xie
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Search for more papers by this authorYonghui Zhang
Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Yang Hong
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Correspondence
Shijie Zhu, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
Email: [email protected]
Yang Hong, Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110004, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorJian Zhang
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Shijie Zhu
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Correspondence
Shijie Zhu, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
Email: [email protected]
Yang Hong, Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110004, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorChunlong Liu
Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, China
Jian Zhang, Shijie Zhu, and Chunlong Liu are co-first authors who contributed equally to this paper.
Search for more papers by this authorXiong Xiao
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Search for more papers by this authorHaojie Xie
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Search for more papers by this authorYonghui Zhang
Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Yang Hong
Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, China
Correspondence
Shijie Zhu, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430071, China.
Email: [email protected]
Yang Hong, Department of Neurosurgery, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110004, China.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Background
The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied.
Method
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long-term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age–period–cohort model. The Bayesian age–period–cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030.
Results
From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (−0.60 [95% CI], −0.70, −0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation.
Conclusion
The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high-income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high-income countries remains substantial level.
Graphical Abstract
Open Research
Data availability statement
The GBD in 2019 provides comprehensive data on the burden of diseases and risk factors across 204 countries and territories. Accessing this data is made possible through the GHDx query tool (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), which is maintained by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Supporting Information
Filename | Description |
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jgh16467-sup-0001-Supplementary Materials.pdfPDF document, 3.1 MB |
Table S1. The deaths and age-standardized death rate of colorectal cancer in East Asia, in 1990 and 2019, by countries and gender. Table S2. The age-specific death rate (longitudinal age curve) in East Asia, by countries and gender. Table S3. The period risk ratio in East Asia, by countries and gender. Table S4. The cohort risk ratio in East Asia, by countries and gender. Table S5. The projections of death number, age-standardized death rate and population attribution fraction (PAF) for colorectal cancer attributed to risk factors, 1990, 2019 and 2030. Table S6. The projections of death number, age-standardized death rate for colorectal cancer, 1990–2030. Figure S1. The age-specific death rate (longitudinal age curve) in East Asia, by countries and gender. (A. China-male; B. China-female; C. Japan-male; D. Japan-female; E. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-male; F. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-female; G. Republic of Korea-male; H. Republic of Korea-female; I. Mongolia-male; J. Mongolia-female; K. Taiwan (Province of China)-male; L. Taiwan (Province of China)-female). Figure S2. The period risk ratio in East Asia, by countries and gender. (A. China-male; B. China-female; C. Japan-male; D. Japan-female; E. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-male; F. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-female; G. Republic of Korea-male; H. Republic of Korea-female; I. Mongolia-male; J. Mongolia-female; K. Taiwan (Province of China)-male; L. Taiwan (Province of China)-female). Figure S3. The cohort risk ratio in East Asia, by countries and gender. (A. China-male; B. China-female; C. Japan-male; D. Japan-female; E. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-male; F. Democratic People's Republic of Korea-female; G. Republic of Korea-male; H. Republic of Korea-female; I. Mongolia-male; J. Mongolia-female; K. Taiwan (Province of China)-male; L. Taiwan (Province of China)-female). Figure S4A. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to low-calcium diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4B. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to low-milk diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4C. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to low whole-grain diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4D. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to low physical activity in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4E. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to low-fiber diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4F. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to high body mass index in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4G. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to high red-meat diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4H. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to high processed-meat diets in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4I. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to high fasting plasma glucose in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4J. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to smoking in East Asia, 2020–2030. Figure S4K. Deaths and age-standardized mortality from colorectal cancer attributable to alcohol use in East Asia, 2020–2030. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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