RESEARCH ARTICLE
The Impact of Climate Change on High-Priority Areas of Conservation for Amphibians in North American Drylands
Jared E. Johnson,
Heather L. Bateman,
Adam Stein,
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque,
Jared E. Johnson
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorHeather L. Bateman
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAdam Stein
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Correspondence:
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorJared E. Johnson,
Heather L. Bateman,
Adam Stein,
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque,
Jared E. Johnson
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorHeather L. Bateman
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAdam Stein
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque
School of Applied Sciences and Arts, College of Integrative Sciences and Arts, Arizona State University, Mesa, Arizona, USA
Correspondence:
Fábio Suzart de Albuquerque ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorFirst published: 10 May 2025
Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF, 2227233).
ABSTRACT
Aim
The goals of this study were to (1) identify how climate change impacts the distribution of amphibian species and high-priority conservation areas (HPCA) in the drylands of the Southwest United States and Northern Mexico, (2) describe the relationship between environmental variables and spatial configurations of HPCA and (3) explore how climate change will impact the distribution of HPCA and investigate the relationship between HPCA and protected area (PA) network.
Location
Southwest United States and Northern Mexico.
Taxon
Amphibians.
Methods
We used distribution maps for 209 amphibian species to estimate surrogates of amphibian diversity, assessed by rarity-weighted richness (RWR), site importance (Zonation) and species richness. Then, we used species accumulation curves to assess their efficiency in representing amphibians in the least number of sites. Next, we used the most effective surrogate to identify HPCA for amphibians. We used environmental variables, usually related to amphibian distribution, and random forest models to assess the impact of climate on the spatial configuration of HPCA in the current and future times. We also used PA networks to assess their representation.
Results
RWR produced a similar spatial configuration of HPCA as Zonation but could not depict the same level of connectivity. HPCAs were observed mainly across California, central Texas and western Mexico. The spatial distribution of HPCA was mostly influenced by precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Climate change will influence the future distribution of HPCA. The overlay between HPCA and PA is weak.
Main Conclusion
Climate change is becoming an ever-increasing issue for conservation efforts, especially in dryland ecosystems where natural resources are already scarce for native species. Results show an alteration in the spatial configuration of amphibian HPCA, and much is still needed to protect and manage them.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Open Research
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available in International Union for the Conservation of Nature, at https://www.iucn.org. These data were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: IUCN, https://www.iucnredlist.org.
Supporting Information
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| jbi15155-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 131.6 KB |
Data S1. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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