Sticky Expectations and Cross-Firm Return Predictability
Zilin Chen
School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Hui Ding
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorFuwei Jiang
Department of Finance at School of Economics, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Center for Macroeconomic Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
Search for more papers by this authorZilin Chen
School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Hui Ding
School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China
Search for more papers by this authorFuwei Jiang
Department of Finance at School of Economics, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Center for Macroeconomic Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
Search for more papers by this author[Correction added on 19 June 2025, after first online publication: The article type has been corrected in this version.]
ABSTRACT
Previous empirical studies document a striking cross-firm return predictability among firms connected through economic links. This study reveals that this cross-firm return predictability is attributable to analysts' sticky expectations. Notably, the return predictability is more pronounced for focal firms covered by analysts with stickier expectations, particularly during earnings announcement days. Furthermore, this effect remains robust against alternative explanations and is evident across different sub-samples, alternative measures of expectation stickiness, and various economic linkages. Our findings highlight a novel insight that analysts' sticky expectations serve as an important factor driving investors' underreaction to the valuable information from economically linked firms.
Open Research
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.
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