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ARTICLE

Sticky Expectations and Cross-Firm Return Predictability

Zilin Chen

Zilin Chen

School of Finance, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China

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Hui Ding

Corresponding Author

Hui Ding

School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

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Fuwei Jiang

Fuwei Jiang

Department of Finance at School of Economics, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Center for Macroeconomic Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

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First published: 02 June 2025

[Correction added on 19 June 2025, after first online publication: The article type has been corrected in this version.]

ABSTRACT

Previous empirical studies document a striking cross-firm return predictability among firms connected through economic links. This study reveals that this cross-firm return predictability is attributable to analysts' sticky expectations. Notably, the return predictability is more pronounced for focal firms covered by analysts with stickier expectations, particularly during earnings announcement days. Furthermore, this effect remains robust against alternative explanations and is evident across different sub-samples, alternative measures of expectation stickiness, and various economic linkages. Our findings highlight a novel insight that analysts' sticky expectations serve as an important factor driving investors' underreaction to the valuable information from economically linked firms.

Data Availability Statement

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.

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