Working Smarter on Cold Cases: Identifying Factors Associated with Successful Cold Case Investigations†
Corresponding Author
Robert C. Davis M.S.
Police Executive Research Forum, 1120 Connecticut Avenue, Washington, DC, 20036
Additional information and reprint requests:
Robert C. Davis, M.S.
Director of Research
Police Executive Research Forum
1120 Connecticut Avenue
Washington, DC 20036
E-mail: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorCarl J. Jensen III Ph.D.
Department of Legal Studies, Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, University of Mississippi, 620 All American Drive, University, MS, 38677
Search for more papers by this authorLane Burgette Ph.D.
Police Executive Research Forum, 1120 Connecticut Avenue, Washington, DC, 20036
Search for more papers by this authorKathryn Burnett M.A.
Dept of Forensic Psychology, Marymount University, 2807 N Glebe St, Arlington, VA, 22207
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Robert C. Davis M.S.
Police Executive Research Forum, 1120 Connecticut Avenue, Washington, DC, 20036
Additional information and reprint requests:
Robert C. Davis, M.S.
Director of Research
Police Executive Research Forum
1120 Connecticut Avenue
Washington, DC 20036
E-mail: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorCarl J. Jensen III Ph.D.
Department of Legal Studies, Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, University of Mississippi, 620 All American Drive, University, MS, 38677
Search for more papers by this authorLane Burgette Ph.D.
Police Executive Research Forum, 1120 Connecticut Avenue, Washington, DC, 20036
Search for more papers by this authorKathryn Burnett M.A.
Dept of Forensic Psychology, Marymount University, 2807 N Glebe St, Arlington, VA, 22207
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Cold case squads have garnered much attention; however, they have yet to undergo significant empirical scrutiny. In the present study, the authors interviewed investigators and reviewed 189 solved and unsolved cold cases in Washington, D.C., to determine whether there are factors that can predict cold case solvability. In the interviews, new information from witnesses or information from new witnesses was cited as the most prevalent reason for case clearance. The case reviews determined that there were factors in each of the following domains that predicted whether cases would be solved during cold case investigations: Crime Context, Initial Investigation Results, Basis for Opening Cold Case, and Cold Case Investigator Actions. The results suggest that it is possible to prioritize cold case work based on the likelihood of investigations leading to clearances.
References
- 1Davies H. Understanding variations in murder clearance rates: the influence of the political environment. Homicide Stud 2007; 11: 133–50.
- 2Alderden MA, Lavery TA. Predicting homicide clearances in Chicago: investigating disparities in predictors across different types of homicide. Homicide Stud 2007; 11: 115–32.
- 3Greenwood P, Chaiken JM, Petersilia J. The criminal investigation process. Lexington, MA: D. C. Heath & Company, 1977.
- 4Chaiken JM, Greenwood PW, Petersilia J. Criminal investigation process: a summary report. Policy Anal 1977; 3: 187–217.
- 5Dugan L, Nagin DS, Rosenfeld R. Explaining the decline in intimate partner homicide: the effects of changing domesticity, women's status, and domestic violence resources. Homicide Stud 1999; 3(3): 187–214.
10.1177/1088767999003003001 Google Scholar
- 6Rojek DG Changing homicide patterns. In: PK Lattimore, CA Nahabedian, editors. The nature of homicide: Trends and changes. Proceedings of the 1996 Meeting of the Homicide Research Working Group; 1996 June 9-12; Santa Monica, CA. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, 1996; 106–25.
- 7McDowall D. Firearm availability and homicide rates in Detroit, 1951-1986. Soc Forces 1990; 69: 1085.
- 8Ousey GC, Lee MR. To know the unknown: the decline in homicide clearance rates, 1980-2000. Crim Justice Rev 2009; 35: 141–58.
10.1177/0734016809348360 Google Scholar
- 9Addington LA. Using National Incident-Based Reporting System murder data to evaluate clearance predictors: a research note. Homicide Stud 2006; 10: 140–52.
- 10Roberts A. Predictors of homicide clearance by arrest: an event history analysis of NIBRS incidents. Homicide Stud 2007; 11: 82–93.
- 11Litwin KJ. A multilevel multivariate analysis of factors affecting homicide clearances. J Res Crime Delinq 2004; 41: 327–51.
- 12Riedel M, Rinehart TA. Clearance, missing data, and murder. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences; 1994 March 8-12; Chicago, IL; Greenbelt, MD: Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, 1994.
- 13 International Association of Chiefs of Police. Murder in America: recommendations from the IACP Murder Summit. The Police Chief 1995; 18–25.
- 14Xu Y. Characteristics of homicide events and the decline in homicide clearance: a longitudinal approach to the dynamic relationship, Chicago 1966-1995. Crim Justice Rev 2008; 33: 452–79.
- 15Borg MJ, Parker KF. Mobilizing law in urban areas: the social structure of homicide clearance rates. Law Soc Rev 2001; 35: 435–66.
- 16Riedel M, Jarvis J. The decline of arrest clearances for criminal homicide: causes, correlates, and third parties. Crim Justice Policy Rev 1999; 9: 279–306.
10.1177/088740349900900302 Google Scholar
- 17Weisheit R, Wells E. Deadly violence in the heartland: comparing homicide patterns in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan counties. Homicide Stud 2005; 9: 55–80.
- 18Pare′ PP, Felson RB, Ouimet M. Community variation in crime clearance: a multilevel analysis with comments on assessing police performance. J Quant Criminol 2007; 23: 243–58.
- 19Cordner G. Police agency size and investigative effectiveness. J Crim Justice 1989; 17: 145–55.
- 20Riedel M. Questions and answers about murder. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1995.
- 21Forst B, Leahy FJ, Shirhall J, Bartolomeo J. Arrest convictability as a measure of police performance. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, 1982; Report No. NCJ 080954.
- 22Keel TG, Jarvis JP, Muirhead KE. An exploratory analysis of factors affecting homicide investigations: examining the dynamics of murder clearance rates. Homicide Stud 2009; 13: 50–68.
- 23Gans J, Urbas G. DNA identification in the criminal justice system. Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice 2002 May; 226; http://www.denverda.org/DNA_Documents/DNA%20in%20Australia.pdf.
- 24Kaye DH, Sensabaugh GF. Reference guide on DNA evidence. Reference manual on scientific evidence. 2nd edn. Washington, DC: Federal Judicial Center, 2000.
- 25House W. Advancing justice through DNA technology. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003.
- 26Lovrich N, Pratt T, Gaffney M, Johnson C, Asplen C, Hurst L, et al. National forensic DNA study report. Pullman, WA: Division of Governmental Studies, Washington State University, 2003.
- 27 National Institute of Justice. Report to the Attorney General on delays in forensic DNA analysis. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, 2003 March; Report No. NCJ 199425.
- 28Regini C. The cold case concept. FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin 1997 August; 1–6.
- 29Regoezzi W, Jarvis J, Riedel M. Clearing murders: is it about time? J Res Crime Delinq 2008 May; 45: 142–62.
- 30 National Institute of Justice. Using DNA to solve cold cases. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, 2002 July; Report No. NCJ 194197.
- 31Wellford C, Cronin J, Brandl S, Bynum T, Eversen T, Galeria S. An analysis of variables affecting the clearance of homicides: A multistate study. Washington, DC: Justice Research and Statistics Association, 1999 October.
- 32Rinehart T. Murder clearances in Chicago 1981–1991 and the factors that affect them. [thesis]. Carbondale, IL: Southern Illinois University, 1995.
- 33Tibshirani R. Regression and shrinkage via the lasso. J R Stat Soc Series B 1996; 58: 267–88.
- 34James GM, Radchenko P, Lv J. DASSO: connections between the Dantzig selector and lasso. J R Stat Soc Series B 2009; 71: 127–42.
10.1111/j.1467-9868.2008.00668.x Google Scholar
- 35Friedman J, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. Regularization paths for generalized linear models via coordinate descent. J Stat Softw 2010; 33: 1–22.