Volume 29, Issue 2 pp. 1696-1706
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Cascading bankruptcies under simultaneous sectorial shocks: Theory and application to the Tunisian banking sector

Mahmoud-Sami Nabi

Corresponding Author

Mahmoud-Sami Nabi

LEGI-Tunisia Polytechnic School and FSEGN, University of Carthage, La Marsa, Tunisia

Economic Research Forum, Cairo, Egypt

Correspondence

Mahmoud-Sami Nabi, University of Carthage, LEGI-Ecole Polytechnique de Tunisie, La Marsa, Tunisia.

Email: [email protected]

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Sami Fersi

Sami Fersi

LEGI-Tunisia Polytechnic School and FSEGN, University of Carthage, La Marsa, Tunisia

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First published: 27 December 2022

Abstract

This paper proposes a theoretical framework modelling the effect of simultaneous sectorial shocks on the banking system resilience, in presence of overlapping portfolio risk. A sectorial shock decreases the value of banks' assets and solvency. We show that beyond a determined threshold, the regulator (central bank) shall intervene in order to avoid that simultaneous sectorial shocks lead to bankruptcies in a cascading process. The model is simulated in the context of the Tunisian banking system for a variety of extreme macroeconomic conditions (economic recession and inflation). The simulations show that the simultaneous shocks to industry, commerce and real estate sectors might lead to the bankruptcies of one to 10 banks among the 23 Tunisian banks via the cascading contagion channel, in the absence of a prompt and adequate intervention by the regulator.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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