Volume 27, Issue 3 pp. e30-e42
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Should I stay or should I go? Hospital emergency department waiting times and demand

Peter Sivey

Corresponding Author

Peter Sivey

School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Correspondence

Peter Sivey, School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 20 November 2017
Citations: 15
The author is also an honorary senior fellow at the Melbourne Institute for Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne and completed some of the work in this project when funded to visit the Centre for Health Economics, University of York, by the Alan Williams Fellowship. The author is grateful to Tony Scott, Vijaya Sundararajan, and Jongsay Yong who are chief investigators of the grant that initially funded this research and to Hugh Gravelle for advice and suggestions, and to Jon Evans, Daniel Donnelly, Anna Burgess, Anne-Maree Kelly, Russell Thomson, Buly Cardak, David Prentice, David Johnston, Peter Siminski, Bronwyn Croxson, Nils Gutacker, Rita Santos, Craig Garthwaite, and seminar participants at Monash University, University of York, University of Technology Sydney, Queensland University of Technology, University of Melbourne, RMIT University, and the Department of Health and Human Services (Victoria) for helpful comments. This research was funded by NHMRC Partnership grant 567217 with the Department of Health and Human Services (Victoria) as a funding partner. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.

Abstract

In the absence of the price mechanism, hospital emergency departments rely on waiting times, alongside prioritisation mechanisms, to restrain demand and clear the market. This paper estimates by how much the number of treatments demanded is reduced by a higher waiting time. I use variation in waiting times for low-urgency patients caused by rare and resource-intensive high-urgency patients to estimate the relationship. I find that when waiting times are higher, more low-urgency patients are deterred from treatment and leave the hospital during the waiting period without being treated. The waiting time elasticity of demand for low-urgency patients is approximately −0.25 and is highest for the lowest-urgency patients.

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