Did You Miss the Ride? Housing Boom and Household Wealth in China
Hongliang Sun
School of Public and International Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Search for more papers by this authorYoumeng Wu
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Xianzhu Wang
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Correspondence: Rui Wang ([email protected])
Xianzhu Wang ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Rui Wang
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China
Correspondence: Rui Wang ([email protected])
Xianzhu Wang ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorHongliang Sun
School of Public and International Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Search for more papers by this authorYoumeng Wu
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Xianzhu Wang
School of Business, Anhui University of Technology, Maanshan, China
Correspondence: Rui Wang ([email protected])
Xianzhu Wang ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Rui Wang
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China
Correspondence: Rui Wang ([email protected])
Xianzhu Wang ([email protected])
Search for more papers by this authorABSTRACT
In the two decades following housing privatization, housing quickly dominated Chinese urban household wealth growth and inequality. We test hypotheses derived from a housing investment production function in China's unique context against multiyear microdata. During 2011–2019, housing wealth of different birth cohorts followed disparate paths, with clear spatial, socioeconomic and social identity-based polarization. The biggest winners in China's housing boom were the well-educated in superstar cities. 5%–10% of the young homeowners born since the late 1970s, especially those born since mid-1980s, seem most vulnerable in a housing bust or when facing a negative income shock.
References
- Au, C.-C., and J. V. Henderson. 2006. “How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China.” Journal of Development Economics 80, no. 2: 350–388.
- Bodie, Z., R. C. Merton, and W. F. Samuelson. 1992. “Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Life Cycle Model.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 16, no. 3: 427–449.
- Cagetti, M., and M. De Nardi. 2006. “Entrepreneurship, Frictions, and Wealth.” Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 5: 835–870.
- Calvet, L. E., and P. Sodini. 2014. “Twin Picks: Disentangling the Determinants of Risk-Taking in Household Portfolios.” Journal of Finance 69, no. 2: 867–906.
- Cao, Y., J. Chen, and Q. Zhang. 2018. “Housing Investment in Urban China.” Journal of Comparative Economics 46, no. 1: 212–247.
- Chamon, M. D., and E. S. Prasad. 2010. “Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 1: 93–130.
- Chao, C.-C., J.-P. Laffargue, and E. Yu. 2011. “The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis: A Revaluation.” China Economic Review 22, no. 1: 108–120.
- Chen, K., and Y. Wen. 2017. “The Great Housing Boom of China.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 2: 73–114.
- Chivakul, M., M. W. W. Lam, X. Liu, W. Maliszewski, and M. A. Schipke. 2015. Understanding Residential Real Estate in China. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
10.5089/9781484337066.001 Google Scholar
- Cocco, J. F. 2005. “Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Housing.” Review of Financial Studies 18, no. 2: 535–567.
- Cocco, J. F., F. J. Gomes, and P. J. Maenhout. 2005. “Consumption and Portfolio Choice Over the Life Cycle.” Review of Financial Studies 18, no. 2: 491–533.
- Coulson, N. E., and M. Tang. 2013. “Institutional and Demographic Influences on the Presence, Scale and Geographic Scope of Individual Chinese Real Estate Investment.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 43, no. 2: 187–196.
- Deng, Y., Y. Qin, and J. Wu. 2019. “Superstar Cities and the Globalization Pressures on Affordability.” Journal of Housing Economics 45, no. 101638: 101638.
10.1016/j.jhe.2019.101638 Google Scholar
- Duca, J. V., and S. S. Rosenthal. 1994. “Borrowing Constraints and Access to Owner-Occupied Housing.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 24, no. 3: 301–322.
- Fang, H., Q. Gu, W. Xiong, and L.-A. Zhou. 2016. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 30, no. 1: 105–166.
- Fischer, M., and M. Z. Stamos. 2013. “Optimal Life Cycle Portfolio Choice With Housing Market Cycles.” Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 9: 2311–2352.
- Flavin, M., and T. Yamashita. 2002. “Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio.” American Economic Review 92, no. 1: 345–362.
- Fratantoni, M. 2001. “Homeownership, Committed Expenditure Risk, and the Stockholding Puzzle.” Oxford Economic Papers 53, no. 2: 241–259.
- Glaeser, E., and J. Gyourko. 2018. “The Economic Implications of Housing Supply.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 1: 3–30.
- Glaeser, E., W. Huang, Y. Ma, and A. Shleifer. 2017. “A Real Estate Boom With Chinese Characteristics.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31, no. 1: 93–116.
- Gomes, F., and A. Michaelides. 2005. “Optimal Life-Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Finance 60, no. 2: 869–904.
- Goodman, L. S., and C. Mayer. 2018. “Homeownership and the American Dream.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, no. 1: 31–58.
- Gottschalck, A. O. 2008. Net Worth and the Assets of Households, 2002. US: US Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration.
- Grinstein-Weiss, M., C. Key, S. Guo, Y. H. Yeo, and K. Holub. 2013. “Homeownership and Wealth Among Low-and Moderate-Income Households.” Housing Policy Debate 23, no. 2: 259–279.
- Grossman, S. J., and J.-L. Vila. 1992. “Optimal Dynamic Trading With Leverage Constraints.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 27, no. 2: 151–168.
- Gyourko, J., P. Linneman, and S. Wachter. 1999. “Analyzing the Relationships Among Race, Wealth, and Home Ownership in America.” Journal of Housing Economics 8, no. 2: 63–89.
- Han, M. F., M. E. M. Jurzyk, W. Guo, Y. He, and M. N. Rendak. 2019. Assessing Macro-Financial Risks of Household Debt in China. International Monetary Fund.
- Holloway, T. M. 1991. “The Role of Homeownership and Home Price Appreciation in the Accumulation and Distribution of Household Sector Wealth.” Business Economics 26, no. 2: 38–44.
- Hu, X. 2005. “Portfolio Choices for Homeowners.” Journal of Urban Economics 58, no. 1: 114–136.
- Huang, Y., D. Yi, and W. A. V. Clark. 2020. “Multiple Home Ownership in Chinese Cities: An Institutional and Cultural Perspective.” Cities 97: 102518.
- Jäntti, M., and E. Sierminska. 2008. “ Survey Estimates of Wealth Holdings in OECD Countries: Evidence on the Level and Distribution across Selected Countries.” In Personal Wealth From a Global Perspective, edited by J. B. Davies, 27–41. New York: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199548880.003.0002 Google Scholar
- Jiang, S., J. Miao, and Y. Zhang. 2022. “China's Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth.” International Economic Review 63, no. 3: 1189–1237.
- Jones, L. D. 1989. “Current Wealth and Tenure Choice.” Real Estate Economics 17, no. 1: 17–40.
10.1111/1540-6229.00471 Google Scholar
- Kaas, L., G. Kocharkov, and E. Preugschat. 2019. “Wealth Inequality and Homeownership in Europe.” Annals of Economics and Statistics 136: 27–54.
10.15609/annaeconstat2009.136.0027 Google Scholar
- Knight, J., L. Shi, and W. Haiyuan. 2022. “Why Has China's Inequality of Household Wealth Risen Rapidly in the Twenty-First Century?” Review of Income and Wealth 68, no. 1: 109–138.
- Li, C., and Y. Fan. 2020. “Housing Wealth Inequality in Urban China: The Transition From Welfare Allocation to Market Differentiation.” Journal of Chinese Sociology 7: 16.
- Li, H., and L.-A. Zhou. 2005. “Political Turnover and Economic Performance: The Incentive Role of Personnel Control in China.” Journal of Public Economics 89, no. 9: 1743–1762.
- Li, K., Y. Qin, and J. Wu. 2020. “Recent Housing Affordability in Urban China: A Comprehensive Overview.” China Economic Review 59: 101362.
- Li, L., and X. Wu. 2014. “ Housing and Household Wealth Inequality: Evidence From the People's Republic of China.” ADBI Working Paper 671. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.
- Li, S., J. Li, and A. Y. Ouyang. 2017. Housing and Household Wealth Inequality: Evidence From the People's Republic of China.
- Li, S., and R. Zhao. 2008. “ Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in China, 1995–2002.” In Personal Wealth From a Global Perspective, edited by J. B. Davies. Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199548880.003.0005 Google Scholar
- Li, S., and H. Wan. 2015. “Evolution of Wealth Inequality in China.” China Economic Journal 8, no. 3: 264–287.
- Liao, Y., and J. Zhang. 2021. “Hukou Status, Housing Tenure Choice and Wealth Accumulation in Urban China.” China Economic Review 68: 101638.
- Linneman, P., and S. Wachter. 1989. “The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership.” Real Estate Economics 17, no. 4: 389–402.
- Liu, C., and W. Xiong. 2020. “ China's Real Estate Market.” In The Handbook of China's Financial System, edited by M. Amstad, G. Sun, and W. Xiong, 181–207. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
10.2307/j.ctv11vcdpc.11 Google Scholar
- Logan, J. R., Y. Fang, and Z. Zhang. 2009. “Access to Housing in Urban China.” International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 33, no. 4: 914–935.
- Martínez-Toledano, C. 2020. “ House Price Cycles, Wealth Inequality and Portfolio Reshuffling.” World Working Paper N° 2020/02. WID.
- Meng, X. 2007. “Wealth Accumulation and Distribution in Urban China.” Economic Development and Cultural Change 55, no. 4: 761–791.
- Merton, R. C. 1971. “Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-Time Model.” Journal of Economic Theory 3, no. 4: 373–413.
- Paxson, C. 1990. “Borrowing Constraints and Portfolio Choice.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, no. 2: 535–543.
- Piketty, T., L. Yang, and G. Zucman. 2019. “Capital Accumulation, Private Property, and Rising Inequality in China, 1978–2015.” American Economic Review 109, no. 7: 2469–2496.
- Ren, Y., C. Xiong, and Y. Yuan. 2012. “House Price Bubbles in China.” China Economic Review 23, no. 4: 786–800.
- Rogoff, K. S., and Y. Yang. 2024. “A Tale of Tier 3 Cities.” Journal of International Economics 152: 103989.
- Rosen, K. T., and M. C. Ross. 2000. “Increasing Home Ownership in Urban China: Notes on the Problem of Affordability.” Housing Studies 15, no. 1: 77–88.
- Rosenzweig, M., and J. Zhang. 2014. “ Co-Residence, Life-Cycle Savings and Inter-Generational Support in Urban China.” NBER Working Paper No. 20057. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Saez, E., and G. Zucman. 2016. “Wealth Inequality in the United States Since 1913: Evidence From Capitalized Income Tax Data.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, no. 2: 519–578.
- Sato, H., T. Sicular, and X. Yue. 2013. “ Housing Ownership, Incomes, and Inequality in China, 2002–2007.” In Rising Inequality in China: Challenges to a Harmonious Society, edited by S. Li, H. Sato, and T. Sicular, 85–141. New York: Cambridge University Press.
10.1017/CBO9781139035057.005 Google Scholar
- Shi, D., and Y. Song. 2005. “Empirical Study on Household Financial Asset Choice.” Statistical Research 10: 43–49.
- Shorrocks, A., J. Davies, R. Lluberas, and A. Koutsoukis. 2018. Global Wealth Report 2018. Zürich: Credit Suisse Research Institute.
- Song, X., and Y. Xie. 2014. “Market Transition Theory Revisited: Changing Regimes of Housing Inequality in China, 1988–2002.” Sociological Science 1: 277–291.
10.15195/v1.a18 Google Scholar
- Sun, W., S. Zheng, and R. Wang. 2015. “The Capitalization of Subway Access in Home Value: A Repeat-Rentals Model With Supply Constraints in Beijing.” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 80: 104–115.
- Targa, M., and L. Yang. 2024. “The Impact of Communist Party Membership on Wealth Distribution and Accumulation in Urban China.” World Development 181: 106660.
- Teplá, L. (2000). “Optimal Portfolio Policies With Borrowing and Shortsale Constraints.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 24, no. 11: 1623–1639.
- Viceira, L. M. 2001. “Optimal Portfolio Choice for Long-Horizon Investors With Nontradable Labor Income.” Journal of Finance 56, no. 2: 433–470.
- Walder, A. G., and X. He. 2014. “Public Housing Into Private Assets: Wealth Creation in Urban China.” Social Science Research 46: 85–99.
- Wan, G., C. Wang, and Y. Wu. 2021. “What Drove Housing Wealth Inequality in China?” China & World Economy 29, no. 1: 32–60.
10.1111/cwe.12361 Google Scholar
- Wang, S.-Y. 2011. “State Misallocation and Housing Prices: Theory and Evidence From China.” American Economic Review 101, no. 5: 2081–2107.
- Wang, S.-Y. 2012. “Credit Constraints, Job Mobility, and Entrepreneurship: Evidence From a Property Reform in China.” Review of Economics and Statistics 94, no. 2: 532–551.
- Wei, S.-J., and X. Zhang. 2011. “The Competitive Saving Motive: Evidence From Rising Sex Ratios and Savings Rates in China.” Journal of Political Economy 119, no. 3: 511–564.
- Wolff, E. N. 2014. “Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1983–2010.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 30, no. 1: 21–43.
- Wolff, E. N. 2021. “The Declining Wealth of the Middle Class, 1983–2016.” Contemporary Economic Policy 39, no. 3: 461–478.
- Wu, J., J. Gyourko, and Y. Deng. 2012. “Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets.” Regional Science and Urban Economics 42, no. 3: 531–543.
- Wu, L., Y. Bian, and W. Zhang. 2019. “Housing Ownership and Housing Wealth: New Evidence in Transitional China.” Housing Studies 34, no. 3: 448–468.
- Wu, W., and T. Qi. 2007. “Liquidity, Life Cycle and Portfolio Choice Heterogeneity.” [In Chinese.] Economic Research Journal 2: 97–110.
- Wu, W., J. Yi, and J. Zheng. 2010. “Household Portfolios in China: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Life Cycle.” [In Chinese.] Wealth and House. Economic Research Journal 45, no. S1: 72–82.
- Xie, Y., and Y. Jin. 2015. “Household Wealth in China.” Chinese Sociological Review 47, no. 3: 203–229.
- Xiong, W. 2023. Derisking Real Estate in China's Hybrid Economy, NBER Working Papers 31118.
- Yang, X., and L. Gan. 2020. “Bequest Motive, Household Portfolio Choice, and Wealth Inequality in Urban China.” China Economic Review 60: 101399.
- Yi, C., Y. Li, Y. Wang, and H. Wan. 2021. “Social Stratification and Housing Wealth Inequality in Transitional Urban China.” International Journal of Urban Sciences 25, no. 1: 31–50.
- Zhang, D., and D. Wang. 2022. “Research on Household Debt Issues: Influencing Factors, Economic and Social Effects, Risk Assessment and Prevention.” [In Chinese.] Chinese Review of Financial Studies 14, no. 06: 93–121 +124.
- Zhang, P., L. Sun, and C. Zhang. 2021. “Understanding the Role of Homeownership in Wealth Inequality: Evidence From Urban China (1995–2018).” China Economic Review 69: 101657.
- Zhao, J., and J. Li. 2017. “The Dual Effects of Housing on Portfolio Choices: Evidence From Urban China.” Annals of Economics and Finance 18, no. 2: 253–276.
- Zhao, R., and S. Ding. 2010. “ The Distribution of Wealth in China.” In Inequality and Public Policy in China, edited by B. A. Gustafsson, L. Shi, and T. Sicular, 118–144. New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Zheng, X., X. Zhang, and X. Zou. 2024. “Balancing the Scales: How Housing Supply Regulation Shapes Household Wealth Inequality in China.” Cities 149: 104963.
- Zhou, M., and J. R. Logan. 1996. “Market Transition and the Commodification of Housing in Urban China.” International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 20, no. 3: 400–421.