Development and validation of two aspiration prediction models in patients receiving nasogastric feeding
Funding information
This study was supported by the funding of Chongqing Education Commission of the 13th Five-year Key Discipline of Nursing (no. 2019hlxk13).
Abstract
Aim
To develop and validate two aspiration prediction models in patients receiving nasogastric feeding.
Background
Aspiration is one of the most serious complications of nasogastric feeding. However, there is a lack of aspiration prediction models for nasogastric feeding.
Methods
A total of 515 patients receiving nasogastric feeding were randomly selected for this unmatched case–control study, with 103 patients in the case group and 412 patients in the control group. Logistic regression was used to develop nomogram and Classification And Regression Tree (CART) models. The performances of the models were internally validated using 1,000 bootstrapped samples.
Results
The predictive accuracy of the CART model (94.5%) was higher than that of the nomogram model (89.1%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the CART model (0.96) was slightly higher than that of the nomogram model (0.93).
Conclusions
The intubation depth, number of comorbidities, aspiration history, indwelling days, food type and the use of sedative-hypnotics may be used to identify aspiration risk.
Implications for Nursing Management
Two aspiration prediction models are provided for nurses to evaluate aspiration risk and increase the quality of nursing management.
