DETECTING CILANGES IN THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF NITRATE CONTAMINATION IN GROUND WATER1
Zhi-Jun Liu
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorGeorge R. Hallberg
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorDale L. Zimmerman
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorRobert D. Libra
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorZhi-Jun Liu
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorGeorge R. Hallberg
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorDale L. Zimmerman
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorRobert D. Libra
Respectively, Postdoctoral Fellow, Smithsonian Environmental Research Centei ; P.O. Box 28, Edgewatei Maryland 21037–0028; Associate Director, University Hygienic Laboratory, The University of Iowa, 102 Oakdale Campus, H101 OH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–5002; Associate Professor, Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Iowa, 225F MLH, Iowa City, Iowa 52242; and Research Geologist, Geological Survey Bureau, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, 109 Trowbridge Hall, Iowa City, Iowa 52242–1319.
Search for more papers by this authorPaper No. 96160 of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (formerly Water Resources Bulletin). Discussions are open until August 1, 1998.
Abstract
ABSTRACT: Many studies of ground water pollution in general and nitrate contamination in particular have often relied on a one-time investigation, tracking of individual wells, or aggregate summaries. Studies of changes in spatial distribution of contaminants over time are lacking. This paper presents a method to compare spatial distributions for possible changes over time. The large-scale spatial distribution at a given time can be considered as a surface over the area (a trend surface). The changes in spatial distribution from period to period can be revealed by the differences in the shape and/or height of surfaces. If such a surface is described by a polynomial function, changes in surfaces can be detected by testing statistically for differences in their corresponding polynomial functions. This method was applied to nitrate concentration in a population of wells in an agricultural drainage basin in Iowa, sampled in three different years. For the period of 1981–1992, the large-scale spatial distribution of nitrate concentration did not show significant change in the shape of spatial surfaces; while the magnitude of nitrate concentration in the basin, or height of the computed surfaces showed significant fluctuations. The change in magnitude of nitrate concentration is closely related to climatic variations, especially in precipitation. The lack of change in the shape of spatial surfaces means that either the influence of land use/nitrogen management was overshadowed by climatic influence, or the changes in land use/management occurred in a random fashion.
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