Volume 41, Issue 5 e13421
ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Next activity prediction of ongoing business processes based on deep learning

Xiaoxiao Sun

Xiaoxiao Sun

School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China

Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China

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Siqing Yang

Siqing Yang

School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China

Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China

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Yuke Ying

Yuke Ying

School of Computer Science and Technology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, China

Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China

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Dongjin Yu

Corresponding Author

Dongjin Yu

Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou, China

Correspondence

Dongjin Yu, Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation, Ministry of Education, Hangzhou 310018, China.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 13 August 2023

Abstract

Next activity prediction of business processes (BPs) provides valid execution information of ongoing (i.e., unfinished) process instances, which enables process executors to rationally allocate resources and detect process deviations in advance. Current researches on next activity prediction, however, concentrate mostly on model construction without in-depth analysis of historical event logs. In this article, we are dedicated to proposing an approach to forecast the next activity effectively in BPs. After in-depth analysis of historical event logs, three types of candidate activity attributes are defined and calculated as additional input for the prediction based on three essential elements, that is, frequent activity patterns, trace similarity and position information. Furthermore, we construct an effective hybrid prediction model combining the popular convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) with self-attention mechanism. Specifically, CNN is used to extract the temporal features before importing into Bi-LSTM for accurate prediction, and self-attention mechanism is applied to strengthen features that have decisive effects on the prediction results. Comparison experiments on four real-life datasets demonstrate that our hybrid model with selected attributes achieves better performance on next activity prediction than single models, and improves the prediction accuracy by 2.98%, 6.05%, 2.70% and 5.26% on Helpdesk, Sepsis, BPIC2013 Incidents and BPIC2012O datasets than the state-of-the-art methods, respectively.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

The authors declared that they have no conflicts of interest to this work.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available in 4TU Centre for Research at https://data.4tu.nl/. These data were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: Helpdesk, https://doi.org/10.17632/39bp3vv62t.1-Sepsis, https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:915d2bfb-7e84-49ad-a286-dc35f063a460-BPIC2013 Incidents, https://doi.org/10.4121/500573e6-accc-4b0c-9576-aa5468b10cee-BPIC2012O, https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:3926db30-f712-4394-aebc-75976070e91f

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