Do stock market fluctuations lead to currency deflation in the South Asian region? Evidence beyond symmetry
Muhammad Tahir Suleman
Department of Accountancy and Finance, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Mosab I. Tabash
College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
Correspondence
Mosab I. Tabash, College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorUmaid A. Sheikh
Faculty of Management Studies, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Search for more papers by this authorMuhammad Tahir Suleman
Department of Accountancy and Finance, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Mosab I. Tabash
College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
Correspondence
Mosab I. Tabash, College of Business, Al Ain University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorUmaid A. Sheikh
Faculty of Management Studies, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
This study explores the role of the asymmetrical influence of stock market reaction to the fluctuations in US dollars against the domestic currencies of the South Asian region. The symmetrical Panel based autoregressive distributed lag model (PARDL) model and panel-based non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) model with the Pooled Mean Group Approach (PMG) approach were employed to estimate the impact of stock market bullish and bearish behaviour on local currency variabilities of the South Asian region. The results show that during the pre-economic recession regime, negative fluctuations in stock indexes had a direct association with exchange rate fluctuations for a longer period. However, after the crisis, both negative and positive stock index shocks have formulated an indirect or inverse association with exchange rate fluctuations. These findings pose important practical implications for the short-term and long-term shareholders and financial analysts. Hence, it is recommended that shareholders and financial analysts should base their investment in South Asian stock indices on negative and positive shocks since the non-linear connectivity between both variables also exhibits regime dependence characteristics.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Open Research
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
REFERENCES
- Ahmed, A. D., & Huo, R. (2020). Linkages among energy price, exchange rates and stock markets: Evidence from emerging African economies. Applied Economics, 52(18), 1921–1935. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2020.1726861
- Al-hajj, E., Al-Mulali, U., & Solarin, S. A. (2018). Oil price shocks and stock returns nexus for Malaysia: Fresh evidence from non-linear ARDL test. Energy Reports, 4, 624–637. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2018.10.002
- Al-Rjoub, S. A. M., & Azzam, H. (2012). Financial crises, stock returns and volatility in an emerging stock market: The case of Jordan. Journal of Economic Studies, 39(2), 178–211. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581211222653
10.1108/01443581211222653 Google Scholar
- Andriansyah, A., & Messinis, G. (2019). Stock prices, exchange rates and portfolio equity flows: A Toda-Yamamoto panel causality test. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(2), 399–421. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-12-2017-0361
- Areli Bermudez Delgado, N., Bermudez Delgado, E., & Saucedo, E. (2018). The relationship between oil prices, the stock market and the exchange rate: Evidence from Mexico. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 45, 266–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2018.03.006
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Saha, S. (2016). Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on stock prices? Global Finance Journal, 31, 57–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2016.06.005
- Brock, W. A., Dechert, W. D., Scheinkman, J. A., & LeBaron, B. (1996). A test for independence based on the correlation dimension. Econometric Reviews, 15, 197–235. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939608800353
10.1080/07474939608800353 Google Scholar
- Carrasco, B., Hayashi, T., & Mukhopadhyay, H. (2010). The Impact of the Global Crisis on South-Asia. Asian Development Bank, 3–36.
- Chang, B. H., Bhutto, N. A., Turi, J. A., Hashmi, S. M., & Gohar, R. (2021). Macroeconomic variables and stock indices: An asymmetric evidence from quantile ARDL model. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 10(2), 242–264. https://doi.org/10.1108/SAJBS-09-2019-0161
- Chen, L., Wen, F., Li, W., Yin, H., & Zhao, L. (2022). Extreme risk spillover of the oil, exchange rate to Chinese stock market: Evidence from implied volatility indexes. Energy Economics, 107, 105857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105857
- Chkir, I., Guesmi, K., Brayek, A. B., & Naoui, K. (2020). Modelling the non-linear relationship between oil prices, stock markets, and exchange rates in oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101274
- Cho, J. S., Greenwood-Nimmo, M., & Shin, Y. (2021). Recent developments of the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework. Journal of Economic Surveys, Special Issue, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12450
- Cho, J. S., Kim, T., & Shin, Y. (2015). Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework. Journal of Econometrics, 188(1), 281–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.05.003
- Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 249–272.
- Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1980). Exchange rates and the current account. The American Economic Review, 70(5), 960–971.
- Dornbusch, R. (1976). Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy, 84(6), 1161–1176. https://doi.org/10.1086/260506
- Dumitrescu, E.-I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
- Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00043
- Hashmi, S. M., & Chang, B. H. (2021). Asymmetric effect of macroeconomic variables on the emerging stock indices: A quantile ARDL approach. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2461
- Hashmi, S. M., Chang, B. H., Huang, L., & Uche, E. (2022). Revisiting the relationship between oil prices, exchange rate, and stock prices: An application of quantile ARDL model. Resources Policy, 75, 102543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102543
- Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
- He, X., Gokmenoglu, K. K., Kirikkaleli, D., & Rizvi, S. K. A. (2021). Co-movement of foreign exchange rate returns and stock market returns in an emerging market: Evidence from the wavelet coherence approach. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1, 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2522
- Huang, Q., Wang, X., & Zhang, S. (2021). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 56, 101340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101340
- Hung, N. T. (2019). Spillover effects between stock prices and exchange rates for the central and eastern European countries. Global Business Review, 23(2), 259–286. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150919869772
- Inoguchi, M. (2014). The impact of external shocks on stock prices in the east Asian domestic banking sector. In Risk management post financial crisis: A period of monetary easing (Vol. 96, pp. 6–97). Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920140000096004
10.1108/S1569-375920140000096004 Google Scholar
- Jung, Y. C., Das, A., & McFarlane, A. (2020). The asymmetric relationship between the oil price and the US-Canada exchange rate. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 198–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2019.06.003
- Kassouri, Y., & Altıntaş, H. (2020). Threshold co-integration, nonlinearity, and frequency domain causality relationship between stock price and Turkish lira. Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 101097. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2019.101097
- Khan, M. K., Teng, J.-Z., Khan, M. I., & Khan, M. F. (2021). Stock market reaction to macroeconomic variables: An assessment with dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2543
- Kumar, S. (2019). Asymmetric impact of oil prices on exchange rate and stock prices. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 72, 41–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.12.009
- Kumar, S., Kumar, A., & Singh, G. (2020). Causal relationship among international crude oil, gold, exchange rate, and stock market: Fresh evidence from NARDL testing approach. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2404
- Kumeka, T. T., Uzoma-Nwosu, D. C., & David-Wayas, M. O. (2022). The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies. Resources Policy, 77, 102744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.102744
- Levin, A., Lin, C.-F., & James Chu, C.-S. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1–24.
- Liang, C. C., Troy, C., & Rouyer, E. (2020). US uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 51, 101046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101046
- Makin, A. J. (2019). Lessons for macroeconomic policy from the global financial crisis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 64, 13–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.07.008
- Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., Tiwari, A. K., & Al-Yahyaee, K. H. (2020). Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models. Economic Systems, 44(1), 100739. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2019.100739
- Muthukumaran, T., Raja, A. S., & Palanichamy, P. (2011). Impact of global financial crisis on Indian stock market—An analytical study. Asia Pacific Business Review, 7(2), 5–12. https://doi.org/10.1177/097324701100700201
10.1177/097324701100700201 Google Scholar
- Neveen, A. (2018). The effect of the financial crisis on the dynamic relation between foreign exchange and stock returns: Empirical evidence from MENA region. Journal of Economic Studies, 45(5), 994–1031. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-10-2017-0308
- Nouira, R., Hadj Amor, T., & Rault, C. (2019). Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 159–171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.07.011
- Okere, K. I., Muoneke, O. B., & Onuoha, F. C. (2021). Symmetric and asymmetric effects of crude oil price and exchange rate on stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from multiple structural break and NARDL analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 30(6), 930–956. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2021.1918223
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
- Reddy, Y. V., & Sebastin, A. (2008). Interaction between forex and stock markets in India: An entropy approach. Vikalpa, 33(4), 27–46.
10.1177/0256090920080403 Google Scholar
- Salisu, A. A., Isah, K., & Ogbonnaya-Orji, N. (2022). A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of US stock returns to exchange rate movements. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 27(1), 1220–1239. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2210
- Salisu, A. A., & Vo, X. V. (2021). The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments. International Review of Economics and Finance, 74, 138–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.02.008
- Sheikh, U. A., Asad, M., Ahmed, Z., & Mukhtar, U. (2020). Asymmetrical relationship between oil prices, gold prices, exchange rate, and stock prices during global financial crisis 2008: Evidence from Pakistan. Cogent Economics and Finance, 8(1), 1-33. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2020.1757802
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). In R. C. Sickles & W. C. Horrace (Eds.), Modelling asymmetric Cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a non-linear ARDL framework BT—Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications (pp. 281–314). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
- Sikhosana, A., & Aye, G. C. (2018). Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa. Economic Analysis and Policy, 60, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2018.08.002
- Singhal, S., Choudhary, S., & Biswal, P. C. (2019). Return and volatility linkages among international crude oil price, gold price, exchange rate and stock markets: Evidence from Mexico. Resources Policy, 60, 255–261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.01.004
- Wei, Y., Qin, S., Li, X., Zhu, S., & Wei, G. (2019). Oil price fluctuation, stock market and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence from China before and after the financial crisis. Finance Research Letters, 30, 23–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.03.028
- Xie, Z., Chen, S.-W., & Wu, A.-C. (2020). The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence. International Review of Economics and Finance, 67, 240–266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.01.001
- Xu, X., Huang, S., & An, H. (2022). The dynamic moderating function of the exchange rate market on the oil-stock nexus. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102126
- Zhang, F., & Zhang, Z. (2022). Forecasting exchange rate markets' volatility of G7 countries: Will stock market volatility help? Applied Economics Letters, 1, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2031856
- Zhu, H., Yu, D., Hau, L., Wu, H., & Ye, F. (2022). Time-frequency effect of crude oil and exchange rates on stock markets in BRICS countries: Evidence from wavelet quantile regression analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 61, 101708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101708
- Živkov, D., Kuzman, B., & Andrejević-Panić, A. (2021). Nonlinear bidirectional multiscale volatility transmission effect between stocks and exchange rate markets in the selected African countries. Economic Research, 34(1), 1623–1650. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2020.1844585