Decision Modeling

II
Jim Q. Smith

Jim Q. Smith

University of Warwick, Coventry, UK

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Peter Thwaites

Peter Thwaites

University of Warwick, Coventry, UK

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First published: 15 September 2008

Abstract

Bayesian decision analysis provides a coherent and logical methodology for not only the expression and exploration of potential risks under uncertainty, but also a framework through which to discover an optimal course of action. Uncertainties are expressed probabilistically and optimal acts discovered through maximizing the decision maker's expected utility. The basic methodology is illustrated by a simple example of agricultural risk management.

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