Probabilistic Design

III
Petrus H.A.J.M. Van Gelder

Petrus H.A.J.M. Van Gelder

Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft, Netherlands

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Johannes K. Vrijling

Johannes K. Vrijling

Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft, Netherlands

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First published: 15 September 2008
Citations: 1

Abstract

In this article, the probabilistic approach to design and risk analysis in civil engineering is outlined. The application of probabilistic design methods offers the designer a way to unify the design of engineering structures, processes, and management systems. For this reason, there is a growing interest in the use of these methods. This article begins with an introduction to probabilistic analysis, a discussion on uncertainties, and a reflection on the deterministic approach versus the probabilistic approach. The article then addresses the tools, design, and calculation methods for a probabilistic systems analysis. Failure probability calculation for an element is reviewed and the article concludes with a description of the evaluation methods of a calculated risk level.

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