Volume 20, Issue 11 pp. 1003-1014
Research Article

The impact of crude oil price fluctuations on unemployment in the United States

Noel D. Uri

Noel D. Uri

Natural Resources and Environment Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1301, New York Avenue, NW, Washington, DC., 20005 USA

Search for more papers by this author
Roy Boyd

Roy Boyd

Department of Economics, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701, USA

Search for more papers by this author

Abstract

This study begins by asking whether fluctuations in the price of crude oil have affected employment in the United States. After reviewing previous assessments of the issue, the existence of an empirical relationship between unemployment and crude oil price volatility is established using Granger causality. Subsequently, the nature of the relationship is estimated with the results suggesting that at least three full years are required before measurable impacts of a percentage change in the real price of crude oil on the change in unemployment are exhausted. Finally, the structural stability of the functional relationship between the change in unemployment, the volatility of the price of crude oil and the percentage change in gross national product is examined.

The full text of this article hosted at iucr.org is unavailable due to technical difficulties.