2.1. Study Design and Location

This study utilized a descriptive cross-sectional design, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Conducted from September to December 2021, the research spanned six districts in Bangladesh, including the capital city, Dhaka, and its surrounding districts: Gazipur, Narsingdi, Narayanganj, Manikganj, and Munshiganj. Six districts surrounding Dhaka city were selected due to the high concentration of poultry enterprises, including a large number of small- and medium-scale poultry farms, compared to other regions of Bangladesh. Additionally, these districts benefit from better transportation and communication networks with the capital, which facilitated the data collection process. Approximately 53.3% of poultry farms in Bangladesh are located in the Dhaka division, with around 24% situated specifically in Gazipur district [23]. A higher proportion of broiler and layer farms are concentrated in the Dhaka Division, and Sonali farms are predominantly found in the Dhaka region, as well as in the western and northern districts of the country [24]. As the capital of Bangladesh, Dhaka has a large population and thus accounts for a major share of the poultry economy. The six districts selected for our study, primarily supply poultry meat to meet Dhaka’s demand [25]. Furthermore, the prices of poultry products, such as birds and eggs, as well as farming costs including feed, medicine, and DOCs, do not differ significantly across regions. Distribution and manufacturing of medicines, feed, DOCs, and other farming inputs are largely handled by private corporations, which tend to maintain uniform pricing across the country [20, 26], thereby ensuring the findings are representative and reflective of the broader conditions faced by poultry farmers in Bangladesh.

2.2. Sample Size and Data Collection

We purposively enrolled 220 commercial chicken farms in our study. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a semi-structured questionnaire with 220 commercial poultry owners for the quantitative component of the study. We performed a priori power analysis using Cohen’s f² = 0.15 (medium effect) [27] using the ’pwr’ package in R. With three predictors, a significance level of 0.05, for achieving 80% the required sample size was 77 farms. Our sample size of 220, the estimated statistical power was approximately 0.99, indicating a high likelihood of detecting meaningful associations. Additionally, in-depth interviews (IDIs) were conducted with 20 selected farm owners for the qualitative component based on the extensiveness and relevance of their responses during the quantitative phase. The researchers continued to include the study participants in qualitative interviews until either data saturation [28] was reached or no new insights or information pertaining to the study objectives were identified. The study included small and medium-sized farm owners of varying ages and sexes, while large farmers and those unwilling to participate were excluded. Commercial poultry farms with fewer than 500 birds were categorized as small-scale, while those with 501–5000 birds were classified as medium scale. Initially, we compiled a list of poultry farms in each area with the assistance of the upazila livestock officer and local farmers. From this list, farms were randomly selected to minimize potential selection bias. Data collectors spent considerable time on each farm to build trust with the farmer, with the average interview lasting approximately 40–50 min.

2.3. Study Tool

A semi-structured questionnaire was developed in English by an expert scientific panel comprising two epidemiologists, two veterinary physicians, two anthropologists, and one economist, all with prior experience in poultry farming research. The questionnaire was then translated into Bangla and subsequently back translated into English by different translators to validate the accuracy of the translation. The Bangla version of the questionnaire was then pretested and finalized after necessary modifications. The pretesting was conducted in six (06) small and medium scale commercial poultry farms including equal number (02) of Broiler, Sonali, and layer farms. The questionnaire covered sociodemographic information of the farm owners farm characteristics (e.g., flock size, number of workers, number of sheds, etc.), as well as economic aspects, including questions on the number of batches, profit amounts, and direct-indirect losses during the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods.

An IDI guideline was also developed to explore the reasons for losses, the impacts of the lockdown, how farm owners managed COVID-19 challenges, and their recommendations. These interviews were recorded using an audio recorder. Quantitative data from the semi-structured questionnaire were collected by trained research associates, while the IDIs were conducted by anthropologists.

2.4. Data Analysis

For quantitative data, Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Office Professional Plus 2021, Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA), R Studio version 2022.02.2, [29] and STATA 17.0 (Stata Corp, 4905 Lakeway Drive, College Station, Texas 77845, USA) were used for data entry, cleaning, and analysis. Descriptive statistics on the sociodemography of farm owners, farm characteristics, and economic aspects were analyzed using Pearson’s chi-square test. Stepwise regression was conducted to select the best model for predicting the average economic loss per farm due to COVID-19. Model selection was guided by both the akaike information criterion (AIC) and the bayesian information criterion (BIC), balancing model fit and parsimony. The final model with the lowest AIC and BIC values included reduced egg price, reduced bird price, and increased feed price as significant predictors. Given that the dependent variable, loss during the COVID-19 pandemic, was not normally distributed, we applied a log transformation before fitting a linear model. The regression model incorporated variables, such as average reduced egg price, reduced bird price, and increased feed price per farm to estimate the average loss. This model was then used to extrapolate the total national loss by multiplying the average loss per farm by the total number of poultry farms.

For the qualitative data, IDIs were transcribed verbatim and subjected to thematic analysis. Researchers repeatedly reviewed the transcripts, systematically coding them, and identifying new themes. This analysis also incorporated consideration of several a priori themes, such as reasons for economic losses, coping mechanisms, and recommendations [30]. The explanatory interpretation was further validated by cross-referencing with the survey data [31].

2.5. Ethical Approval

This study was conducted by following the Declaration of Helsinki and the research protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee of Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University (Memo no. CVASU/Dir (R&E)EC/2020/241(5)). Informed written consent was obtained from each participant prior to the commencement of interviews. Participants’ anonymity and confidentiality were strictly maintained throughout the research process. Furthermore, participants were informed beforehand that the researchers would not provide any financial or other benefits for their participation, nor offer compensation if they were found to be significantly impacted financially by the COVID-19 pandemic.

3.1. Sociodemographic Characteristics

Among the 220 study participants, the majority were male (93.18%). Data were collected from six districts: Narshingdi (16 participants, 7.27%), Narayanganj (57 participants, 25.91%), Munshiganj (23 participants, 10.45%), Manikganj (28 participants,12.73%), Gazipur (69 participants, 31.36%), and Dhaka (27 participants, 12.27%) (Figure 1, Table 1). The largest age groups were 18−30 years and 31−40 years, comprising 66.36% of the participants. Over half of the participants (64.55%) were well educated having completed graduation. More than half (58.64%) relied solely on poultry business for their income, while the rest had additional sources of income.

The majority of farm owners had 1–5 years of experience in poultry farming, yet only 16.36% had received any formal training on poultry farming. Most farms (70%) were operated by the owner and their family members, with only 17.73% employing separate workers for farm activities. Given that our study included only small and medium-scale farmers, most (77.27%) farms had only one flock.

Regarding farm types, we identified 78 broiler farms (35.45%), 85 Sonali farms (38.64%), and 57-layer farms (25.91%). There was a significant association (p < 0.05) between the type of farm and the likelihood of experiencing financial losses during the COVID-19 pandemic (Table 1).

Supporting Information 1: Table S1 presents the economic loss status of different bird species according to the sociodemographic characteristics of the farm owners. Each demographic variable exhibited substantial economic losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, none of the demographic variables, except for the location (district) of Sonali farms, showed a significant relationship with the economic losses incurred during the pandemic.

Before the pandemic, the majority of farms (91.75%) were profitable, with 98% of broiler farms, 89.47% of layer farms, and 86.11% of Sonali farms reporting profits. However, during the pandemic, overall profitability dropped dramatically, with only 12.27% of farms managed to remain profitable. Specifically, 20.51% of broiler, 8.24% of layer, and 7.02% of Sonali farms remained profitable. In the post-COVID-19 lockdown period, a significant recovery was observed, with 82.05% of broiler farms, 71.76% of layer farms, and 80.7% of Sonali farms reporting profits (Figure 2).

During the pandemic, the mean number of batches raised by broiler poultry farmers decreased by 20.62% (from 7.13 to 5.66). Similarly, the mean duration of layer farming dropped by 5.1% (from 11.96 months to 11.35 months) and the mean number of batches for Sonali poultry farming declined by 16.43% (from 4.87 to 4.07) (Supporting Information 2: Figure S1).

During the pandemic period, as a result of lockdowns, isolation, and stringent preventive measures enforced by the government and local authorities, the prices of eggs and birds decreased, whereas the prices of feed and chicks increased. Specifically, the average decrease in egg price was 2.53 BDT, while the mean prices for live broiler, layer, and Sonali birds decreased by 37.47, 56.25, and 63.13 BDT, respectively (Figure 3A). Conversely, the feed prices for broiler, layer, and Sonali birds increased by 304.2, 350.62, and 361.73 BDT, respectively (Figure 3B). Additionally, the mean prices of broiler, layer, and Sonali chicks increased by 26.58, 21.14, and 20.82 BDT, respectively (Figure 3C).

During the pandemic period, a significant majority of broiler (83.54%) and layer (80.65%) farmers reported changes in their trading patterns or supply chains, whereas approximately half of the Sonali farmers (54.10%) reported similar changes (Figure 4). After the pandemic period, about 33.33% of broilers, 31.03% of layer, and 45.90% of Sonali farmers managed to recover their losses. However, most farmers indicated during interviews that they had not yet fully overcome the financial impact (Figure 5).

3.2. Estimation and Prediction of the Economic loss

We used stepwise regression to identify the best model for predicting the average loss per farm due to COVID-19, selecting the model with the lowest AIC. In univariate regression analysis, the predictors “reduced bird price”, “reduced egg price”, and “increase feed price” were found to be significantly associated with losses incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic (Table 2).

After adjusting for all other effects, the line graph of estimated marginal means and their 95% confidence intervals predicts a significant inverse relationship between the dependent variable “loss” and the independent variables: decreased egg price, decreased bird price, and increased feed price. Figure 6A illustrates an ascending curve, revealing that a decrease in each unit of egg price inversely correlates with an increase in economic loss for the farmers (p-value = 0.001). In Figure 6B, a decrease in each unit of live bird price shows an increase in economic loss (p-value < 0.001). Figure 6C presents a relatively flat but still ascending curve, indicating that an increase in feed price is associated with an increase in loss during the COVID-19 pandemic (p-value = 0.010).

This calculation yields an average loss of 1,52,023.4 BDT ≈ $1407.6

Thus, the estimated nationwide loss during the COVID-19 pandemic faced by small and medium-scale commercial poultry farms was 98.5 million USD.

This section of the paper systematically explores the impacts of COVID-19 on poultry farming, organized into three major thematic areas: causes of economic losses, coping strategies employed during the pandemic, and recommendations from farmers to mitigate these impacts.

The study initially focused on contextualizing the onset of COVID-19 in Dhaka, Bangladesh, where following the first detected case, the government of Bangladesh implemented several measures, including a nationwide lockdown and repeated enforcement of social distancing, isolation, and movement restrictions across seven distinct phases. During this period, many businesses, particularly small and medium-scale enterprises like poultry farming, faced significant financial challenges. The poultry farmers reported considerable economic losses primarily due to decreased consumer demand and increased operational costs of farming during the pandemic.

3.3. Dwindling Consumer Demand

During the pandemic period, stringent measures, such as lockdowns, social distancing, isolation, and other restrictions were implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19 cases, resulting in widespread closures of offices, industries, and garments sectors, which significantly impacted consumer behavior. The enforcement of these measures led to a sharp decline in public gatherings, such as weddings and other events, further compounded by restrictions on hotels, restaurants, food shops, and local marketplaces, which were only allowed to operate on limited days. Consequently, these restrictions severely reduced the customer base for local bazaars or markets, leading to a notable decrease in poultry consumption, as uniformly reported by all respondents. This decline is exemplified by the experiences of a small-scale poultry farmers, who reported a significant reduction in demand for his Sonali chickens during this period. The below example as described the situation by a small-scale poultry farmer who raised Sonali birds underscores the broader economic impact of the pandemic on small poultry enterprises:

“There was no demand for chickens. Restaurants were closed and social events or gatherings were nonexistent. Consequently, I had to sell chickens at a diminished price with loss.” (IDI 14)

The study found that farmers typically sold their poultry locally to dealers, retailers, and vendors who then transported and sold the poultry in Dhaka, the capital city. However, the implementation of strict movement restriction policy like lockdowns, social isolation, and general leaves, severely hampered poultry trading during the COVID-19 pandemic. Farmers reported that most dealers and retailers closed their shops during the lockdowns, and vendors only operated their shops on specific days as permitted by local government or authorities.

“After corona, our farm was closed for 6 months. All the local markets, restaurants were closed, and continued lockdown in Dhaka. There were no wedding ceremonies, so where would I sell the poultry? So, that time I didn’t raise any poultries. 300–350 chickens were ready for sell that week, and there was the lockdown so couldn’t sell them.” (Sonali poultry farmer, Narayanganj)

The farmer explained the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on his poultry business. When the lockdown was enforced, all local markets and restaurants were closed, including those in Dhaka, the capital city. This closure meant that there were no outlets for selling his chickens. Additionally, wedding programs, which are a major part of the food market and typically include chicken meat as a key item on the menu, were not taking place. With these major sales channels unavailable, the farmer faced a critical situation. He had chickens ready for sale, but due to the lockdown, he couldn’t sell them. Consequently, he decided to halt poultry raising entirely during the 6-month shutdown.

3.4. Rumors and Socio-Behavioral Shifts in Poultry Consumption

During the initial stages of the pandemic, widespread uncertainty about the cause and origins of COVID-19 fueled the spread of various rumors. Mainstream media outlets sometimes broadcast these rumors to attract viewers, while social media platforms became hotbeds for amplified unverified information. Few respondents in the study also reported rumors that incorrectly blamed poultry for transmitting COVID-19 to humans. Misconceptions that consuming poultry consumption and its products could lead to COVID-19 infections were prevalent until subsequent rumors suggested bats as potential reservoirs of the virus. One broiler farmer, who lost two immediate family members to COVID-19, reported that the public was extremely anxious and scared during this period. He observed a marked decline in poultry consumption driven by these fears. He stated,

“People doubted poultry consumption as it may spread corona. We were under a lot of pressure at that time… people didn’t eat chickens at all, it took a lot of time to sell those chickens.” (IDI 18)

During the pandemic, not only consumers but also poultry farmers experienced significant sociobehavioral changes, influenced heavily by widespread rumors. These rumors instilled fear among farmers about the possibility of contracting the virus from their poultry. Such fears led many of them to shut down their farm during the pandemic period. One of the respondents, who owned a broiler farm, stated,

“I didn’t know if I could stay alive or not during corona. I was sad seeing the situation of many other countries, so I stopped raising for 3 months. Then I saw nobody was following the rules so I started raising chickens again.” (IDI 1)

A few farmers reported observing unusual poultry deaths during COVID-19, which they speculated might be linked to the COVID-19. These speculated correlations caused panic among farmers, especially as COVID-19 cases surged in their villages or communities. The spread of rumors and fear among the villagers compounded the situation, leading to a temporary shutdown of their farms. This closure had a profound impact on their livelihoods and cast a shadow of uncertainty over their future prospects. One of the Sonali poultry farmers stated the dire situation as below:

“Many poultry died but no disease could be detected, I cut the birds to diagnose the disease of the poultry, still nothing was detected and even the village doctors couldn’t diagnose” (IDI 13).

3.5. Augmented Outlays for Poultry Operations During COVID-19

Farmers complained significant increases in operational costs of poultry farming, which placed considerable strain on their profitability and overall farming operations. They reported that the price of all essential farming inputs, such as poultry feed, chicks, medicines, and litter/husk raised significantly. Notably, the soaring expenses of poultry feed, which constitutes a substantial portion of their farming budget, became a major concern for the majority of farmers. Moreover, the heightened costs for chicks and medicines further amplified their financial burdens. The rising price of litter and husks, essential for maintaining sanitation and proper hygiene, added to these challenges. Consequently, a multitude of farmers voiced their frustration and concern over the sustainability of their poultry enterprises amidst the mounting financial challenges.

According to the farmers, poultry feed and medicine industries heavily rely on imported raw materials. The study noted a notable decline in the production of poultry feed and medicines, attributed to cross-border restrictions imposed during the pandemic. Additionally, disruptions in transportation further compounded the situation, resulting in escalated farming costs throughout the pandemic period. Our study respondents frequently highlighted the significant impact of these transportation issues on the supply chain, particularly affecting feed availability and the distribution of poultry products. These challenges were repeatedly emphasized by the farmers as significant barriers to their farming operations. In response to this topic, a female owner of a broiler farm provided the following feedback:

“During COVID-19, all the transport and vehicles were unavailable so I had to stop farming for 5–6 months, besides, I couldn’t sell chickens, and I had to use feed, medicine (with the increased price the loss was around one lac taka. If I didn’t stop farming, then I could make a profit of 4 lac taka.” (IDI 10)

3.6. Disruption of the Supply Chain and Selling Networks

The augmentation of farming costs also contributed significantly to the disruption of traditional supply chains and selling patterns during the pandemic.

Farmers reported that the majority of dealers, middlemen, and suppliers had to close their businesses due to COVID-19 restrictions. Consequently, they experienced disruptions to the established supply chain and selling networks they had previously relied upon. Before the pandemic, it was common practice for farmers to buy DOCs from dealers or hatcheries, and to source feed and husk from same or different dealers. In addition, some dealers also engaged in veterinary medicine businesses and provided assistance for treating poultry when required.

In the poultry business in Bangladesh, a credit system is commonly used, where dealers provide credit to farmers for DOCs, feed, and other necessary supplies. Farmers are expected to repay these credits after selling their poultry or poultry products. Interestingly, the same dealers who extend credit typically also purchase live birds or eggs from the farmers. This arrangement allows dealers to earn profit without taking on much of the associated risks.

However, during the pandemic, dealers stopped providing credit to farmers and began demanding repayment of existing debts. This shift placed additional financial pressure on the farmers, significantly compounding their difficulties during an already challenging period. A farmer who raised broiler poultry expressed how these changes affected his operations and financial stability as follows:

“During the lockdown, I had a loss because the dealer didn’t give feed, as the factory was closed, production was decreased.” (IDI 18)

Similarly, another farmer, who raised Sonali poultry, also shared insights on the same issue,

“During COVID-19, I couldn’t sell the poultry as the wholesaler wasn’t there to buy it, all shops and markets were closed so I had to sell the chickens to the local neighborhood in due. I have now recovered from the due payment. I thinks I couldn’t overcome this loss yet.” (IDI 6)

During the lockdown, the usual patterns of selling were significantly disrupted as regular retailers or dealers became irregular or discontinued their businesses altogether. This unforeseen setback severely impacted farmers, as the poultry continued to age without gaining additional weight, thereby increasing the costs of maintenance without corresponding revenue. The increased burden forced farmers to change their selling strategies and cope with a neo-normal situation (Figure 7).

3.7. Coping Strategies During COVID-19

Throughout the pandemic, small and medium-scale commercial poultry farmers faced significant challenges, but devised some coping strategies to mitigate the impacts. While a few respondents expressed a sense of helplessness, with no other option than to close their farms, others adapted by changing their supply chains and selling patterns. To overcome financial losses, some of the farmers resorted to borrowing from banks, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), relatives, or other sources. Some of them even liquidated assets, such as cattle and cropland, and with one respondent reported closing other businesses to run his poultry farm during the crisis. Although, some of the respondents received government incentives intended to offset their losses, the aid was often insufficient to fully recover the burden of economic catastrophes.

3.8. Lessons Learned by Farmers From COVID-19 and Their Recommendations

During the COVID-19 pandemic, poultry farmers gained valuable insights into managing their operations under crisis conditions. They shared these lessons and recommendations for mitigating financial losses and better preparing for future pandemics (Figure 8). One key suggestion was the implementation of government or NGO-supported free training programs for small and medium-scale commercial poultry farmers. These training programs would focus on essential skills, such as financial management, feeding, and treatment practices, aiming to empower farmers with the knowledge to make informed decisions independently, rather than relying on neighboring farmers and dealers. In addition, the farmers advocated for increased governmental incentives, noting that existing supports were inadequate for sustaining their livelihoods. Furthermore, they also highlighted the importance of accessing low-interest loans from banks, which could provide critical financial relief, particularly for small business operators like themselves.

The farmers also recommended the inclusion of all small- and medium-scale commercial poultry farmers in the existing poultry farmers’ association to better elevate their concerns and address their demands effectively. This inclusion would enable them to collectively raise their voices confronting the monopolistic practices of large companies, which often oppress small farmers to dominate the entire market. They also proposed that the government should implement policies to support small-scale farmers and exert pressure on these companies to ensure fair practices. Additionally, most participants suggested that the government should establish a price monitoring system and, if feasible, subsidize the cost of poultry feed and medicine to support the sustainability of small- and medium-scale operations. Additional comments from respondents are outlined below:

“Government can help us financially. Government can also decrease the feed price because the price is too much now. Also, farm training can be given to us from the Upazila (subdistrict) livestock department. We are doing everything on our own, we didn’t get any training regarding farming.” (IDI 10, Broiler farmer)

“Some large poultry industries are controlling the whole business and benefited. They have lacs of poultry. When they want to sell their poultries, the market price is high, 150–170 taka per kilogram and when they finished their sells, the market price gets down to 140 taka. These need to stop. The government needs to take action for this.” (IDI 16)