Risk scores for predicting incident heart failure admission in patients with chronic coronary syndromes: Validation in a prospective, monocentric, long-term, cohort study
Corresponding Author
Josué López-Baizán
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Correspondence
Josué López Baizán, Cardiology Department, Reina Sofía University Hospital, Avenida Menéndez Pidal s/n, 14,004 Córdoba, Spain.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorMartín Ruiz Ortiz
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorMónica Delgado Ortega
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorAna Rodríguez Almodóvar
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorFátima Esteban Martínez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCarlos Sánchez Fernández
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJosé Javier Sánchez Fernández
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorLeticia Mateos de la Haba
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorLucas Barreiro Mesa
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCristina Ogayar Luque
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorElías Romo Peñas
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJosé López-Aguilera
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorFrancisco Carrasco Ávalos
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJuan Carlos Castillo Domínguez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorManuel Anguita Sánchez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorManuel Pan
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorDolores Mesa Rubio
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Josué López-Baizán
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Correspondence
Josué López Baizán, Cardiology Department, Reina Sofía University Hospital, Avenida Menéndez Pidal s/n, 14,004 Córdoba, Spain.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorMartín Ruiz Ortiz
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorMónica Delgado Ortega
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorAna Rodríguez Almodóvar
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorFátima Esteban Martínez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCarlos Sánchez Fernández
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJosé Javier Sánchez Fernández
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorLeticia Mateos de la Haba
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorLucas Barreiro Mesa
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorCristina Ogayar Luque
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorElías Romo Peñas
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJosé López-Aguilera
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorFrancisco Carrasco Ávalos
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJuan Carlos Castillo Domínguez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorManuel Anguita Sánchez
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorManuel Pan
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorDolores Mesa Rubio
Cardiology Department, Reina Sofia University Hospital, Cordoba, Spain
Maimonides Institute for Biomedical Research of Cordoba, IMIBIC, Cordoba, Spain
Search for more papers by this authorJosué López Baizán and Martín Ruiz Ortiz contributed equally to this work.
Abstract
Background
Heart failure (HF) admission in chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) patients has a prognostic impact. Stratification schemes have been described for predicting this endpoint, but none of them has been externally validated.
Objectives
Our aim was to develop point scores for predicting incident HF admission with data from previous studies, to perform an external validation in an independent prospective cohort and to compare their discriminative ability for this event.
Methods
Independent predictive variables of HF admission in CCS patients without baseline HF were selected from four previous prospective studies (CARE, PEACE, CORONOR and CLARIFY), generating scores based on the relative magnitude of the coefficients of Cox of each variable. Finally, the scores were validated and compared in a monocentric prospective cohort.
Results
The validation cohort included 1212 patients followed for up to 17 years, with 171 patients suffering at least one HF admission in the follow-up. Discriminative ability for predicting HF admission was statistically significant for all, and paired comparisons among them were all nonsignificant except for CORONOR score was superior to CLARIFY score (C-statistic 0.73, 95%CI 0.69–0.76 vs. 0.69, 95% CI 0.65–0.73; p = 0.03).
Conclusion
All tested scores showed significant discriminative ability for predicting incident HF admission in this independent validation study. Their discriminative ability was similar, with significant differences only between the two scores with higher and lower performance.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding this work.
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