Projections of Age Distribution of Farm Operators in the United States Based upon Estimates of the Present Value of Income

The increase in the average age of farm operators in the United States since 1920 is pronounced. Several studies have been made of the age of farm operators and have projected the age distribution of farm operators in 1970. This article is based on the premise that the acquisition cost of labor of the agricultural industry for younger workers and the corresponding salvage value for older workers partially determine movements into and out of farming. Present values of future income streams for hired laborers at 25 and 45 years of age in farming and in four nonfarm occupations are estimated and used in constructing an independent variable in the farm operator supply models. Projection of the age distribution of farm operators in 1970 suggests that increases in the average age of farm operators will continue and that this trend will be more pronounced than anticipated in earlier studies.