The Effect of Weather on Agricultural Output: A Look at Methodology

This article discusses methodological problems involved in attempting to measure the impact of weather on crop yields. The weather index approach is advanced as a more appropriate analytical technique than multiple regression analysis. Attempts to analyze the role of improvements in technology have been greatly hampered by the year-to-year fluctuations in yields due to weather. Several techniques have been used to assess the impact of weather on agricultural output. The multiple regression approach, most suited to studies at the micro-level of crop yield-weather relationships, has been used on an aggregate level as well. The difficulties involved in specifying appropriate variables and functional relationships as well as problems of aggregation limit its usefulness at this level.