Modeling of Wheat Production Under Irrigated and Rainfed Conditions Using the APEX Model in Arba Minch, Southern Ethiopia
This article is part of Special Issue:
Edmealem Temesgen Ebstu,
Samuel Dagalo Hatiye,
Demelash Wendmagegnehu Goshime,
Corresponding Author
Edmealem Temesgen Ebstu
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorSamuel Dagalo Hatiye
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorDemelash Wendmagegnehu Goshime
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorEdmealem Temesgen Ebstu,
Samuel Dagalo Hatiye,
Demelash Wendmagegnehu Goshime,
Corresponding Author
Edmealem Temesgen Ebstu
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorSamuel Dagalo Hatiye
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorDemelash Wendmagegnehu Goshime
Faculty of Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering , Arba Minch University Water Technology Institute (AWTI) , P.O. Box 21, Arba Minch , Ethiopia
Search for more papers by this authorFirst published: 17 June 2025
Academic Editor: Deepika Kohli
Abstract
Ethiopia’s reliance on wheat as a staple crop for sustenance and income is evident. Yet, its production is hindered by climate variations and management practices, notably in the Arba Minch area, in southern Ethiopia. This study utilizes the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model to forecast irrigated and rainfed wheat yields in this area. Field surveys were carried out to collect yield data from wheat-producing kebeles. The APEX input data and information on climate, soil, and crop management practices were gathered from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, region, and district agriculture offices, respectively. The model accurately simulated wheat yields, showcasing sensitivity to climate, soil properties, and management practices. The model calibration and the validation result revealed good agreement between the observed and simulated yields in both irrigated and rainfed wheat farms, with statistical measures of NSE > 0.7, RSR ≤ 0.5, PBIAS ≤ ±10%, and R2 > 0.80). This study demonstrated the APEX model’s potential for simulating irrigated and rainfed wheat production in the study area. The finding of this study is valuable for agricultural planning and decision making, to increase wheat production in Ethiopia.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Open Research
Data Availability Statement
The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
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