Modelling the potential distribution, net primary production and phenology of common ragweed with a physiological model
Marion Carmen Leiblein-Wild
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Max-von-Laue-Str. 13, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Shared first authorship.Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Jörg Steinkamp
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Shared first authorship.Correspondence: Jörg Steinkamp, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main 60325, Germany.
E-mail: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorThomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Altenhöferallee 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Search for more papers by this authorOliver Tackenberg
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Max-von-Laue-Str. 13, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Search for more papers by this authorMarion Carmen Leiblein-Wild
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Max-von-Laue-Str. 13, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Shared first authorship.Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
Jörg Steinkamp
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Shared first authorship.Correspondence: Jörg Steinkamp, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main 60325, Germany.
E-mail: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorThomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325 Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Altenhöferallee 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Search for more papers by this authorOliver Tackenberg
Institute of Ecology, Evolution and Diversity, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Max-von-Laue-Str. 13, Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Germany
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Aim
Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a medically relevant invasive species of great public interest due to its highly allergenic pollen. We aimed at modelling its potential range, its net primary production (NPP) and important phenological stages.
Location
Europe and North America.
Methods
We developed a new physiological model for common ragweed and applied it to simulate the species′ potential distribution (calibrated with the native range), NPP and phenology in North America and Europe. Based on this model, we investigated which regions are suitable for ragweed growth in Europe and simulated the timing of phenological stages that determine pollen release.
Results
The model predicted the observed distribution of ragweed in North America well. The application to Europe suggests that large parts of Europe are climatically suitable for ragweed growth and reproduction. The highest potential NPP was predicted in southern-central and south-eastern Europe and southern France, roughly corresponding with hotspots of atmospheric pollen load, but also indicating a higher potential than currently achieved in western Europe and along parts of the northern edge of its distribution. The predicted time of pollen releases in Europe corresponded well with measurements from pollen traps.
Main conclusions
The results suggest that our mechanistic model adequately represents physiological and ecological characteristics that determine the potential distribution, productivity and phenology of common ragweed. The model could be used for predicting the potential distribution and performance of ragweed in the future under climate change and might thus contribute to improved longer term predictions of exposure to allergenic pollen.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| jbi12646-sup-0001-AppendixS1.docxWord document, 1.2 MB | Appendix S1 Supplementary figures. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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