AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT USING THE PALMER DROUGHT INDEX1
V. K. Lohani
Respectively, Assistant Professor, Engineering Fundamentals Department, and Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061.
Search for more papers by this authorG. V. Loganathan
Respectively, Assistant Professor, Engineering Fundamentals Department, and Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061.
Search for more papers by this authorV. K. Lohani
Respectively, Assistant Professor, Engineering Fundamentals Department, and Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061.
Search for more papers by this authorG. V. Loganathan
Respectively, Assistant Professor, Engineering Fundamentals Department, and Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061.
Search for more papers by this authorPaper No. 96149 of the Journal of the American Water Resources Association (formerly Water Resources Bulletin). Discussions are open until August 1, 1998. (Recipient of the 1996 AWRA/UCOWR Student Paper Competition Award, Graduate Division.)
Abstract
ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is used in a non-homogeneous Markov chain model to characterize the stochastic behavior of drought. Based on this characterization an early warning system in the form of a decision tree enumerating all possible sequences of drought progression is proposed for drought management. Besides yielding probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, the method associates a secondary measure in terms of likely cumulative precipitation deficit to provide timely guidance in deciding drought mitigation actions. The proposed method is particularly useful for water availability task forces in various states for issuing drought warnings in advance. The applicability of the technique is illustrated for the Tidewater climatic division of Virginia.
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