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Study of the Effect of Vaccination on Periodic Structures of Measles Epidemics in Japan
Ayako Sumi,
Ken-ichi Kamo,
Norio Ohtomo,
Nobumichi Kobayashi,
Corresponding Author
Ayako Sumi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Address correspondence to Dr. Ayako Sumi, Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-17, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, 060-8556, Japan. Fax: + 81-11-612-1660. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorKen-ichi Kamo
Liberal Arts and Science Division of Mathematics, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorNorio Ohtomo
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8628 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorNobumichi Kobayashi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAyako Sumi,
Ken-ichi Kamo,
Norio Ohtomo,
Nobumichi Kobayashi,
Corresponding Author
Ayako Sumi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Address correspondence to Dr. Ayako Sumi, Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, S-1, W-17, Chuo-ku, Sapporo, 060-8556, Japan. Fax: + 81-11-612-1660. E-mail: [email protected]Search for more papers by this authorKen-ichi Kamo
Liberal Arts and Science Division of Mathematics, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorNorio Ohtomo
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8628 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorNobumichi Kobayashi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-8556 Japan
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of vaccination on periodic structures of measles epidemics in Japan. We carried out spectral analysis for time series data of measles notifications collected in Japan. It was confirmed that the interepidemic period, which corresponds to the interval between major epidemics of measles, increases as the vaccination ratio increases. This result was supported by a theory based on a mathematical model for epidemics of infectious diseases. It was suggested that the interepidemic period is useful to estimate the effect of vaccination on measles incidences quantitatively.
Abbreviations
-
- FFT
-
- fast Fourier transform
-
- MEM
-
- maximum entropy method
-
- MMR, measles
-
- mumps and rubella
-
- PSD
-
- power spectral density
-
- SEIR
-
- Susceptibles/Exposed/Infectives/Recovers
-
- S/N
-
- signal-to-noise.
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