Rangelands destruction under population growth: The case of Iran

As population and income per capita grow in a developing country like Iran, demand for meat increases but a potential nutrition crisis also arises. Meat production becomes more profitable, and the number of sheep or other meat-producing animals in the country rises. Growth of the sheep population increases the demand for fodder, which is obtained from two major domestic sources: rangelands and farmlands. However, as a result of population growth in the country, the demand for non-meat food, which is produced on the farmlands, also rises and increases the demand for the farmlands themselves. Since cultivable land is limited, the price of farmlands increases and makes farm hay production more expensive. As a result, the pressure on the rangelands to feed the growing sheep population rises. The sheep population in the rangelands finally surpasses their carrying capacity, causing rangelands destruction and a collapse in range grass production. Eventually, the domestic food supply falls sharply, producing a serious crisis in meat supply and nutrition of the human population. To prevent such a crisis, different policy alternatives are examined. The key to a successful policy is identified to be balancing the number of sheep in the rangelands with the production capacity of the rangelands. In addition, lower population growth and higher investment in the rangelands can keep domestic meat production per capita at a higher level.