Volume 30, Issue 3 pp. 3212-3229
SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock market volatility

Anastasios Megaritis

Anastasios Megaritis

Hull University Business School, University of Hull, Hull, UK

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Alexandros Kontonikas

Alexandros Kontonikas

Essex Business School, University of Essex, Colchester, UK

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Nikolaos Vlastakis

Nikolaos Vlastakis

Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

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Athanasios Triantafyllou

Corresponding Author

Athanasios Triantafyllou

IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, France

Correspondence

Athanasios Triantafyllou, IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 – LEM – Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 16 August 2024

Abstract

We examine the forecasting power of the volatility of the slope of the US Treasury yield curve on US stock market volatility. Consistent with theoretical asset pricing models, we find that the volatility of the slope of the term structure of interest rates has significant forecasting power on stock market volatility for forecasting horizon ranging from 1 up to 12 months. Moreover, the term structure volatility has significant forecasting power when used for volatility predictions of the intra-day returns of S&P500 constituents, with the predictive power being higher for stocks belonging to the telecommunications and financial sector. Our forecasting models show that the forecasting power of yield curve volatility is higher to and absorbs that of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Uncertainty, showing that the main channel through which the yield curve volatility affects the stock market is not only related with uncertainty about monetary policy actions or policy rates, but also with uncertainty regarding the future cash flows and dividend payments of US equities. Lastly, we show that the forecasting power of term structure volatility significantly increases during the post-2007 Great recession period which coincides with the Fed adopting unconventional monetary policies to stimulate the economy.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings will be available upon request, since the data sources are not publicly available.

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