Volume 30, Issue 3 pp. 2108-2129
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Sovereign bonds' risk-based heterogeneity

Dimitris A. Georgoutsos

Dimitris A. Georgoutsos

Department of Accounting and Finance, Athens University of Economics & Business, Athens, Greece

Economic Analysis and Research Department, Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece

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Petros M. Migiakis

Corresponding Author

Petros M. Migiakis

Economic Analysis and Research Department, Bank of Greece, Athens, Greece

Correspondence

Petros M. Migiakis, Economic Analysis and Research Department, Bank of Greece, 21 El. Venizelou, 10250 Athens, Greece.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 30 May 2024
Citations: 1

Abstract

Are sovereign risk premia subject to heterogeneous effects from their drivers, associated with the risk class each sovereign bond belongs to? In the paper at hand, effects on sovereign bond risk premia stemming from macroeconomic, fiscal, and volatility factors, are examined by considering the classification of sovereign riskiness. Panel data estimation techniques are used, for 30 countries, with data in quarterly frequency for the period 2001Q1 to 2019Q4. Sovereign spreads are found to be subject to heterogeneous effects associated with their credit ratings; spreads on sovereign bonds considered low-risk increase with higher growth rates and inflation, while spreads on highly risky bonds decrease with higher growth rates and are more sensitive to idiosyncratic and global volatility. Primary fiscal surpluses indeed lower spreads but cannot counterbalance the effects of volatility episodes and the prospects for low growth. Our results provide support for countercyclical fiscal policies, suggesting that spreads can be expected to be reduced by primary surpluses, under the condition that the economy expands and market volatility is low. Our main findings are robust to various alternative setups, samples, and control variables such as central banks' asset purchases.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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