Volume 29, Issue 2 pp. 1896-1919
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Which implied volatilities contain more information? Evidence from China

Linyu Wang

Linyu Wang

School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, China

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Yifan Ji

Yifan Ji

School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China

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Zhongxin Ni

Corresponding Author

Zhongxin Ni

School of Economics, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China

Correspondence

Zhongxin Ni, School of Economics, Shanghai University, Room 565, No. 99, ShangDa Road, Shanghai 200444, China.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 03 January 2023

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the information capacity of implied volatility (IV) estimated with model-based and model-free methods. Among the model-free approaches, we further divide them into direct estimation (DE) and indirect estimation (INDE) approaches according to the computational process. We study the predictability of different implied volatilities on realized volatility over various forecasting horizons based on the Chinese option data. The out-of-sample results indicate that all the IVs contain the information transmitted by option market, and have predictive ability on the realized volatility. Using three different loss functions, we find that the implied volatilities estimated with DE approach contain more information. When considering different market scenarios, we find model-based implied volatility performs best during the stable period and the DE approach always works well no matter the investor sentiment is normal or abnormal. Moreover, we also discuss the predictability of implied volatility on crash risk. Our results remain robust by using alternative realized volatility and alternative rolling windows.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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