Volume 199, Issue 1 pp. 143-152
ORIGINAL PAPER

A computational model for prediction of ferritin and haemoglobin levels in blood donors

Yared Paalvast

Corresponding Author

Yared Paalvast

Donor Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Correspondence

Yared Paalvast, Donor Medicine, Sanquin Blood Bank, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

Email: [email protected]

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Sara Moazzen

Sara Moazzen

Donor Medicine Research – Donor Studies, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

Molecular Epidemiology Research Group, MDC Berlin-Buch, Max-Delbrück-Center for Molecular Medicine in the Helmholtz Association, Berlin, Germany

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Maike Sweegers

Maike Sweegers

Donor Medicine Research – Donor Studies, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Boris Hogema

Boris Hogema

Donor Medicine Research – Blood-borne Infections, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Mart Janssen

Mart Janssen

Donor Medicine Research – Transfusion Technology Assessment, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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Katja van den Hurk

Katja van den Hurk

Donor Medicine Research – Donor Studies, Sanquin Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

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First published: 19 July 2022
Citations: 2

Summary

Blood donors are at risk of iron deficiency anaemia. While this risk is decreased through ferritin-based deferral, ideally ferritin monitoring should also aid in optimising donation frequencies. We extended an existing model of haemoglobin (Hb) synthesis with iron homeostasis and validated the model on a cohort of 300 new donors whose ferritin levels were measured from stored blood samples collected over a 2-year period. We then used the donor's gender, body weight, height, and baseline Hb and ferritin levels to predict subsequent Hb and ferritin levels. The prediction error was within measurement variability in 88% of Hb level predictions and 64% of ferritin level predictions. A sensitivity analysis of the model revealed that baseline ferritin level was the most important in predicting future ferritin levels. Finally, we used the model to calculate the annual donation frequency at which donors would keep their ferritin level >15 ng/ml when measured after donating for 2 years. The mean annual donation frequency would then be 1.9 for women and 4.1 for men. The computational model, requiring baseline values only, can predict future Hb and ferritin levels remarkably well. This enables determination of optimal donation frequencies for individual donors at the start of their donation career.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

Data is available upon reasonable request.

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