Volume 63, Issue 5 pp. 4939-4959
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Investor attention and the predictability of the volatility of CNY-CNH spreads: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS model

Xiaoping Li

Xiaoping Li

School of Finance and Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China

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Zhipeng Zhang

Zhipeng Zhang

School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China

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Junyu Pan

Junyu Pan

Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, Nanjing, China

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Jihong Duan

Corresponding Author

Jihong Duan

School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing, China

Correspondence

Jihong Duan, School of Economics, Nanjing University of Finance & Economics, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210023, China.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 27 October 2023

Abstract

Combining the four aspects of self-, macro, environmental, and policy attention, using backward-looking rolling regressions, we construct novel international and domestic investor-attention indices using the search volume index from Google Trends together with Baidu Index to investigate how investor attention affects the CNY-CNH spreads volatility. Moreover, comparing different GARCH-MIDAS models and conventional GARCH-type models is conducted concerning the out-of-sample volatility forecasting capability. Our results show that: (i) international and domestic investor attention has a positive impact; and (ii) the GARCH-MIDAS models involving investor attention improve forecast accuracy. In particular, the model with domestic investor attention has an advantage in forecasting.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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