Future of publishing: Perils, pitfalls and opportunities

If you type into the Google® search engine ‘Publishing is …’ you are given three suggestions: dead, broken and dying. Is Google® trying to tell us something? Over the past decade the publishing industry has undergone huge structural change. In all forms from book to journal to magazine, the industry is like a swimmer in rough seas trying to keep their head above water; every time the swimmer's head pops up to take a breath, another wave crashes down to test their strength. As a niche section of the industry, journal publishing is worth an estimated US$9.4 billion a year.1 Over the past decade, this sector has endured a number of different waves crashing around it: from the Internet wave that ushered in open access, to online start-ups that challenged traditional business models (Amazon® was once one of these), to the global financial crisis that saw library budgets cut and revenues falter. The journal industry continues to manage itself through these changes, and because of careful planning, calmer seas are on the horizon.

Journal publishing is an industry based around communities. Journal publishers work with colleges, societies and associations to publish academic research that adds to the global base of knowledge. Within these research communities, there are administrators, editors, authors, readers, libraries, funders and industry. Each of these professions contributes in one way or another to the journal product that arrives in your letterbox or inbox. It becomes the journal publisher's role to ensure that the traditional needs of these groups are met while keeping abreast of industry changes that could have a positive or negative impact on the journal. A project undertaken by John Wiley and Sons used a method of scenario planning first used by Royal Dutch Shell.2 The method was not about predicting the future2 but about a tool to organise thinking about possible futures and to identify the risks and opportunities. In journal publishing, we imagined these different futures to be: progression, proliferation, dislocation and explosion.

Progression future

In the progression future, the journal publishing industry moves forward with small steps, but steps that over time add up to substantial change. In this future, the relationship between society and publisher will strengthen as societies look for new ways to develop member benefits in order to grow3 and protect their own revenue streams. At the same time, publishers will need to develop new business models and ways of working to combat marketplace challenges. The relationship between societies and publishers will grow through necessity. The journal will remain at the heart of the relationship, but new ways of working will also arise. This will include online platforms, such as job sites, educational seminars on research, policy and practice, and an increased focus on the society brand and influence globally. In the progression future, the journal will remain an important benefit to the society's membership but will also open up new avenues for business and innovation, the partnership between society and publisher becoming even more closely linked.

Proliferation future

In the proliferation future, content becomes functional. In 2012, Buck spoke of the clinical need for ‘relevant, concise, authoritative, searchable information from a credible source’.4 With large capital investments, functional content will deliver services to match the needs of a reader or customer. Research will be broken down into key facts, the information accessed by clinicians on their mobile device, anytime and anywhere. There will be links to relevant databases and material for further reading. Information will start helping researchers in their roles like never before. Relationships between societies and publishers will grow through the development of online education and Continuing Professional Development. The society will be able to provide access to content and accreditation with the capital investment and technological expertise from the publisher. This partnership will see great advances in education where static journals, textbooks and websites then grow into content tailored specifically to the customer's needs. The proliferation future will require a large investment of time and money but will transform the way societies and their members work as well as the relationship between society and publisher.

Dislocation future

In the third future, called dislocation, content becomes open. This is a future where content is freely available, where users do not want to pay and nor do they have to. Wiki sites grow to replace reference books; the currency of free information that is ‘good enough’ becomes ingrained. Open access is the norm with governments mandating shorter and shorter embargo periods on content, while authors post their peer-reviewed articles on open websites. Information continues to be shared illegally, but with the black-market so pervasive, the war on piracy is lost and the act largely is accepted. The world of dislocation is one of change. Content is still created but questions surround revenue models to support authors, societies and publishers. Revenue that once came to societies through journal subscription income is lost as all content is now open and available. Smaller societies that rely on subscription income to survive close or amalgamate. Support from corporate sponsors, for example, the pharmaceutical and medical device industries, becomes a necessity. Societies look to create new programmes supported by sponsorship and advertising. With research freely available and copyright unclear, societies also look to publishers to protect the version of record. The job of the publisher as gatekeeper of the most correct up-to-date versions of academic material becomes increasingly important.

Explosion future

The final future is explosion. In the world of explosion, scientific research is less about the written article and more about shared datasets. Online communities are built where research is conducted, and analysis placed online for immediate feedback. Increasingly functional technology allows the growing bank of raw research data to be mined and results promoted to specific groups with ease. This is a world where peer review falters under the weight of available information and new ways of global collaboration take over to fill the vacuum. In the explosion world, there is great opportunity for societies to define the standards of practice as these disparate communities and ways of working emerge. Publishers and societies are tasked with providing order from the chaos and to invest in the emerging technologies that allow these communities to thrive.

In one way or another, elements of each of these futures is already upon us. The publishing industry is no longer governed by the same rules and values but can be influenced by anyone with a laptop and Internet connection. Although this does breed uncertainty, there are also great opportunities for growth and sharing of information. In a world that values learning and education above all else, the ability to unlock these shared ideals with a click of a button is surely a good thing. The rough seas we find ourselves in might actually be guiding us in the right direction. Publishing is dead? I do not think so. In many ways publishing is closer to reaching its full potential than ever before.