Volume 40, Issue 5 pp. 2399-2422
SPECIAL ISSUE ARTICLE

Reliability assessment of man-machine systems subject to probabilistic common cause errors

Kehui Li

Kehui Li

School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

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Jianbin Guo

Jianbin Guo

School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

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Shengkui Zeng

Shengkui Zeng

School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

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Haiyang Che

Corresponding Author

Haiyang Che

School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

Science and Technology on Reliability and Environmental Engineering Laboratory, Beijing, China

Correspondence

Haiyang Che, School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China.

Email: [email protected]

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First published: 23 March 2024
Citations: 1

Abstract

The occurrence of probabilistic common cause errors (PCCEs) in man-machine systems can lead to multiple human errors being affected by common causes and will contribute greatly to the reliability of the system. In this paper, A reliability modeling method based on event tree (ET)-fault tree (FT) model for man-machine systems subjected to PCCEs is proposed. Under the influence of PCCEs, risk factors in the system are not independent, and human errors affected by the same common cause will occur with different probabilities. To describe the dependencies among risk factors, a PCCE gate is proposed to extend FTs in the ET-FT model. To analyze the impact of common causes on the human error probabilities and quantify the extended FT, an explicit method and an implicit method based on the Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method are proposed. The proposed quantification methods consider the different relationships among multiple common causes in a single model. Finally, the proposed methods are validated in the reliability assessment of the emergency response system under malfunction of the solar wing mechanism.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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