Volume 30, Issue 3 pp. 2254-2269
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Forecasting reserve risk for temporal dependent losses in insurance

Sawssen Araichi

Corresponding Author

Sawssen Araichi

Department of Quantitative Methods, College of Business Administration, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia

University of Sousse, IHEC—Institute of High Commercial Studies of Sousse, LaREMFiQ, Department of Economic and Quantitative Methods, Sousse, Tunisia

Correspondence

Sawssen Araichi, Department of Quantitative Methods, College of Business Administration, King Faisal University, P.O.Box 380, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia.

Email: [email protected]

Search for more papers by this author
Christian de Peretti

Christian de Peretti

Department C.L.E.S., Ecole Centrale de Lyon, Laboratory of Actuarial and Financial Sciences (LSAF, EA2429), Institute of Financial and Insurance Sciences, University Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Ecully Cedex, France

Search for more papers by this author
Lotfi Belkacem

Lotfi Belkacem

University of Sousse, IHEC—Institute of High Commercial Studies of Sousse, LaREMFiQ, Department of Economic and Quantitative Methods, Sousse, Tunisia

Search for more papers by this author
First published: 26 June 2024

Abstract

In non-life insurance, insurance companies aim to accurately assess their reserves in order to fulfil their future obligations. They are based on methods provided by the literature review to evaluate their reserve risk. However, these methods do not take all claim characteristics and ignore the temporal dependence structure of claims, which can affect reserve amounts and lead to delayed payments for policyholders. Therefore, the aim is to investigate the temporal dependence structure among claim amounts (losses) in order to evaluate the accurate amounts of reserves. To achieve this goal, a model called the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality Model is proposed, which considers the temporal dependence characteristics of claims. This model is used to estimate model parameters, so the consistency of such an estimate is proven. Additionally, a bootstrap method adjusted to the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Sinistrality model is proposed for predicting reserves and errors. The results reveal that considering temporal dependence between losses improves reserve distribution estimation and enhances solvency capital requirement. This means that insurance companies will be able to ensure they have sufficient funds available to meet their obligations to policyholders, thereby enhancing customer satisfaction and trust. Additionally, this can assist insurance companies in maintaining better regulatory compliance.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy or ethical restrictions.

The full text of this article hosted at iucr.org is unavailable due to technical difficulties.