Causation, Theory, and Policy in the Social Sciences
Mark C. Stafford
Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel P. Mears
Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Search for more papers by this authorMark C. Stafford
Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, USA
Search for more papers by this authorDaniel P. Mears
Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Despite a penchant for constructing and testing causal theories, social scientists frequently avoid explicit discussion of causal issues. Illustrating with criminological literature, we argue that attention to particular causal issues will improve theory and theory testing and provide a more systematic basis for identifying policy applications. Our argument centers on a discussion of: (i) causal versus spurious effects, (ii) independent versus shared causes, (iii) reversible versus irreversible causes, including symmetric versus asymmetric causes, (iv) basic versus superficial causes, and (v) causal heterogeneity among different populations, units of comparisons, including spatial units, and types of behavior. We further suggest how researchers and policymakers can benefit from consideration of causal issues.
References
- Agnew, R. (1992). Foundation for a general strain theory of crime and delinquency. Criminology, 30(1), 47–87.
- Benda, B. B., & Corwyn, R. F. (1997). Religion and delinquency: The relationship after considering family and peer influences. Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, 36(1), 81–92.
- Bhrolchain, M. N., & Dyson, T. (2007). On causation in demography: Issues and illustrations. Population and Development Review, 33(1), 1–36.
- Blau, J. R., & Blau, P. M. (1982). The cost of inequality: Metropolitan structure and violent crime. American Sociological Review, 47(1), 114–129.
- Bushway, S. D. (2011). Labor markets and crime. In J. Q. Wilson & J. Petersilia (Eds.), Crime and public policy (pp. 183–209). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
- Cartwright, N. (2004). Causation: One word, many things. Philosophy of Science, 71(5), 805–819.
- Chamlin, M. B., & Cochran, J. K. (1998). Causality, economic conditions, and burglary. Criminology, 36(2), 425–440.
- Clarke, K. A. (2005). The phantom menace: Omitted variable bias in econometric research. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22(4), 341–352.
- Clogg, C. C., & Haritou, A. (1997). The regression method of causal inference and a dilemma confronting this method. In V. R. McKim & S. P. Turner (Eds.), Causality in crisis? Statistical methods and the search for causal knowledge in the social sciences (pp. 83–112). Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press.
- DiCristina, B. (1995). Method in criminology: A philosophical primer. New York, NY: Harrow and Heston.
- Evans, T. D., Cullen, F. T., Dunaway, R. G., & Burton, V. S. (1995). Religion and crime re-examined: The impact of religion, secular controls, and social ecology on adult criminality. Criminology, 33(2), 195–224.
- Fagan, A. A. (2013). Family-focused interventions to prevent juvenile delinquency: A case where science and policy can find common ground. Criminology and Public Policy, 12(4), 617–650.
- Farrington, D., & Welsh, B. C. (2007). Saving children from a life of crime: Early risk factors and effective interventions. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
- Freedman, D. A. (1997). From association to causation via regression. In V. R. McKim & S. P. Turner (Eds.), Causality in crisis? Statistical methods and the search for causal knowledge in the social sciences (pp. 113–161). Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.
- Freedman, D. A. (2004). Graphical models for causation and the identification problem. Evaluation Review, 28(4), 267–293.
- Freedman, D. A. (2006). Statistical models for causation: What inferential leverage do they provide? Evaluation Review, 30(6), 691–713.
- Glenn, N. D. (1989). What we know, what we say we know: Discrepancies between warranted and unwarranted conclusions. In H. Eulau (Ed.), Crossroads of social science: The ICPSR 25th anniversary volume (pp. 119–140). New York, NY: Agathon Press.
- Gotttfredson, M. R., & Hirschi, T. (1990). A general theory of crime. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
-
Hart, H. L. A., & Honore, T. (1985). Causation in the law (
2nd ed.). Oxford, England: Clarendon Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198254744.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Hirschi, T., & Selvin, H. C. (1966). False criteria of causality in delinquency research. Social Problems, 13(3), 254–268.
-
Johnson, B. R., Li, S. D., Larson, D. B., & McCullough, M. (2000). A systematic review of the religiosity and delinquency literature. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 16(1), 32–52.
10.1177/1043986200016001003 Google Scholar
-
Kazemian, L. (2007). Desistance from crime: Theoretical, empirical, methodological, and policy considerations. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 23(1), 5–27.
10.1177/1043986206298940 Google Scholar
- Lieberson, S. (1985). Making it count: The improvement of social research and theory. Berkeley: University of California Press.
-
Little, D. (2011). Causal mechanism in the social realm. In P. M. Illari & J. Willamson (Eds.), Causality in the sciences (pp. 273–295). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.003.0013 Google Scholar
- Marini, M. M., & Singer, B. (1988). Causality in the social sciences. In C. C. Clogg (Ed.), Sociological methodology (pp. 347–409). Washington, DC: American Sociological Association.
- Merton, R. K. (1957). Social theory and social structure (rev. and enl. ed.). New York, NY: Free Press.
- Moffitt, T. E. (1993). Adolescence-limited and life-course persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100(4), 674–701.
- Moffitt, T. E., Lynam, D. R., & Silva, P. A. (1994). Neuropsychological tests predicting persistent male delinquency. Criminology, 32(2), 277–300.
- Parker, R. N. (1989). Poverty, subculture of violence, and type of homicide. Social Forces, 67(4), 983–1007.
- Ragin, C. C. (2000). Fuzzy-set social science. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
- Rosenfeld, R. (2011). Changing crime rates. In J. Q. Wilson & J. Petersilia (Eds.), Crime and public policy (pp. 559–588). New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
-
Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. (1993). Crime in the making: Pathways and turning points through life. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
10.1177/0011128793039003010 Google Scholar
-
Sampson, R. J., Winship, C., & Knight, C. (2013). Overview of: ‘Translating causal chains: Principles and strategies for policy-relevant criminology.’
Criminology and Public Policy, 12(4), 585–616.
10.1111/1745-9133.12028 Google Scholar
- Sekhon, J. S. (2004). Quality meets quantity: Case studies, conditional probability and counterfactuals. Working paper. Retrieved from http://sekhon.berkeley.edu/papers/QualityQuantity.pdf
- Smith, H. L. (1990). Specification problems in experimental and nonexperimental social research. In C. C. Clogg (Ed.), Sociological methodology (pp. 59–91). Washington, DC: American Sociological Association.
-
Sobel, M. E. (2005). The scientific model of causality. Sociological Methodology, 35, 99–133.
10.1111/j.0081-1750.2006.00165.x Google Scholar
-
Stinchcombe, A. L. (2005). The logic of social research. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
10.7208/chicago/9780226788586.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Tittle, C. R., Villemez, W. J., & Smith, D. A. (1978). The myth of social class and criminality: An empirical assessment of the empirical evidence. American Sociological Review, 43(5), 643–656.
- Uggen, C., & Piliavin, I. (1998). Asymmetrical causation and criminal desistance. The Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 88(4), 1399–1422.
Further Reading
- Berk, R. A. (1987). Causal inference as a prediction problem. In D. M. Gottfredson & M. Tonry (Eds.), Crime and justice: A review of research (pp. 183–200). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
- Farrington, D. P. (2003). Development and life-course criminology. Criminology, 41(2), 221–256.
-
Illari, P. M., Russo, F., & Williamson, J. (2011). Causality in the sciences. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199574131.001.0001 Google Scholar
- Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, reasoning, and inference. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
- Sampson, R. J., Laub, J. H., & Wimer, C. (2006). Does marriage reduce crime? A counterfactual approach to within-individual causal effects. Criminology, 44(3), 465–508.
Citing Literature
Browse other articles of this reference work: