Benefit/Risk Assessment in Prevention Trials
Joseph P. Costantino
University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorJoseph P. Costantino
University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Search for more papers by this authorAbstract
Benefit/risk assessment (B/RA) is a mathematical procedure to estimate the probability of detrimental outcomes, beneficial outcomes and the net-effect anticipated from exposure to a given agent or procedure. B/RAs of health-related outcomes are used for public health planning, decision-making regarding health care financing, and therapeutic decision-making in clinical practice. Information obtained from B/RAs based on findings from controlled clinical trials, particularly those with double-masking of treatment, are most informative for health care planning and decision making because such information is less likely to be bias than is information obtained from observational studies. Thus, B/RAs in prevention trials are an excellent source of information to use as the basis for health care planning and decision-making. Applications of R/BA in prevention trials are performed as supplements for planning, monitoring and analyzing the trial. These applications can be categorized into three types of assessments. This article provides a description of the three types of assessment performed in prevention trials, defines the statistical algorithms used for each type of assessment and discusses several key methodological and practical issues involve with the application of B/RA to health-related outcomes.
References
- 1 Bennett, K. J. & Torrance, G. W. (1996). Measuring health state preferences and utilities: ratings scale, time trade-offs and standard gamble techniques, in Quality of Life and Pharmacoeconomics in Clinical Trials, 2nd Ed., B. Spilker, ed. Lippincott-Raven, Philadelphia, pp. 253–265.
- 2 Boyd, N. F., Sutherland, H. J., Heasman, K. Z., TritchlerD. L. & Cummings B. J. (1990). Whose utilities for decision analysis?, Medical Decision Making 1, 58–67.
- 3 Costantino, J. P. (1999). Evaluating women for breast cancer risk-reduction therapy, in ASCO Fall Education Book. American Society of Clinical Oncology, pp. 208–214.
- 4 Costantino, J. P., Gail, M. H., Pee, D., Anderson, S., Redmond, C. K. & Benichou, J. (1999). Validation studies for models to project the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 91, 1541–1548.
- 5 Cummings, S. R., Echert, S., Krueger, K. A., Grady, D., Powles, T. J., Cauley, J. A., Norton, L., Nickelsen, T., Bjarnason, N. H., Morrow M., Lippman M. E., Black, D., Glusman, J. E. & Jordan, V. C. (1999). The effect of raloxifene on risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women: results from the MORE randomized trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 281, 2189–2197.
- 6 Ettinger, B., Black, D. M., Mitlak B. H., Knickerbocker, R. K., Nickelsen, T., Genant, H. K., Christiansen, C., Delmas, P. D., Zanchetta, J. R., Stakkestad, J., Gluer, C. C., Krueger, K., Cohen, F. J., Eckert, S., Ensrud, K. E., Avioli, L. V., Lips, P. & Cummings, S. R. (1999). Reduction of vertebral fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis treated with raloxifene: results from a 3-year randomized clinical trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 282, 637–645.
- 7 Fisher, B., Costantino, J. P., Wickerham, D. L., Redmond, C. K., Kavanah, M., Cronin, W. M., Vogel, V., Robidoux, A., Dimitrov, N., Atkins, J., Daly, M., Wieand, S., Tan-Chiu, E., Ford, L. & Wolmark, N. (1998). Tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer: report of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 study, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 90, 1371–1388.
- 8 Freedman, L., Anderson, G., Kipnis, V., Prentice, R., Wang, C. Y., Rousouw, J., Wittes, J. & DeMets, D. (1996). Approaches to monitoring the results of long-term disease prevention trials: examples from the Women's Health Initiative, Controlled Clinical Trials 17, 509–525.
- 9 Gail, M. H., Brinton, L. A., Byar, D. P., Corle, D. K., Green, S. B., Schairer, C. & Mulvihill, J. J. (1989). Projecting individualized probabilities of developing breast cancer for white females who are being examined annually, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 81, 1879–1886.
- 10 Gail, M. H., Costantino, J. P., Bryant, J., Croyle, R., Freedman, L., Helzlsouer, K. & Vogel V. (1999). Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen for preventing breast cancer, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 91, 1829–1846.
- 11 Guyatt, G., Feeny, D. & Patrick, D. (1993). Measuring health-related quality of life, Annuals of Internal Medicine 118, 622–629.
- 12 Haynes, R. B., Sackett, D. L., Gray, J. A. M., Cook, D. J. & Guyatt, G. H. (1996). Transferring evidence from research to practice: 1. The role of clinical care research evidence in clinical decisions, APC Journal Club 125, A14–A15.
- 13 Hulley, S., Grady, D., Bush, T., Furberg, C., Herrington, D., Riggs, B. & Vittinghoff, E. (1998). Randomized trial of estrogen plus progestin for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in postmenopausal women. Heart and Estrogen/Progestin Replacement Study (HER) Research Group, Journal of the American Medical Association 280, 605–613.
- 14 Liao, Y., McGee, D. L., Cooper, R. S. & Sutkowski, M. B. (1999). How generalizable are coronary risk prediction models? Comparison of Framingham and two other national cohorts, American Heart Journal 137, 837–845.
- 15 Llewellyn-Thomas, H. A. (1995). Patients' health care decision making: a framework for descriptive and experimental investigations, Medical Decision Making 15, 101–106.
- 16 Llewellyn-Thomas, H. A., Naylor, C. D., Cohen, M. N., Baskiniski, A. S., Ferris, L. E. & Williams, J. E. (1992). Studying patients' preferences in health care decision making, Canadian Medical Association Journal 147, 859–864.
- 17 Lloyd-Jones, D. M., Larson, M. G., Beiser, A. & Levy, D. (1999). Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease, Lancet 353, 89–92.
- 18 Manolio, T. A., Kronmal, R. A., Burke, G. L., O'Leary, D. H. & Price, T. R. (1996). Short-term predictors of incidence stroke in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study, Stroke 27, 1479–1486.
- 19 Menotti, A., Jacobs, D. R., Blackburn, H., Krombout, D., Nissinen, A., Nedeljkovic, S., Buzina, R., Mohacek, I., Seccareccia, F., Giampaoli, S., Dontas, A., Aravanis, C. & Toshima, H. (1996). Twenty-five year prediction of stroke deaths in the seven countries study: the role of blood pressure and its changes, Stroke 27, 381–387.
- 20 Pocock, S. J. & Elbourne, D. R. (2000). Randomized trials or observational tribulations?, The New England Journal of Medicine 342, 1907–1909.
- 21 Redelmeier, D. A., Rozin, P. & Kahneman D. (1993). Understanding patients' decision–cognitive and emotional perspectives, Journal of the American Medical Association 270, 72–76.
- 22 Redmond, C. K. & Costantino, J. P. (1996). Design and current status of the NSABP Breast Cancer Prevention Trial, Recent Results in Cancer Research 140, 309–317.
- 23 Sackett, D. L. (1997). Bias in analytical research, Journal of Chronic Diseases 32, 51–63.
- 24 Simon, G., Wagner, E. & VonKorff, M. (1995). Cost-effectiveness comparisons using “real world” randomized trials: the case of the new antidepressant drugs, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 48, 363–373.
- 25 Spiegelhalter, D. J., Freedman, L. & Parmar, M. K. B. (1994). Bayesian approaches to randomization clinical trials, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 157, 357–416.
- 26 Steineck, G. & Ahlbom, A. (1992). A definition of bias founded on the concept of the study base, Epidemiology 3, 477–482.
- 27 Taylor, A. L., Adams-Cambell, L. & Wright, J. T. (1999). Risk/benefit assessment of tamoxifen to prevent breast cancer—still a work in progress, Journal of the National Cancer Institute 19, 1792–1973.
- 28 Wolmark, N., Wickerham, D. L., Costantino, J. P. & Cronin, W. (1999). NSABP Protocol P2: Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) for the Prevention of Breast Cancer. National Surgical Breast and Bowel Project, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
- 29 Women's Health Initiative Study Group (1998). Design of the Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and observational study, Controlled Clinical Trials 19, 61–109.
- 30 Writing Group for the PEPI Trial (1995). Effects of estrogen/progestin regimens on heart disease risk factors in postmenopausal women: the Post-menopausal Estrogen/Progestin Intervention (PEPI) Trial, Journal of the American Medical Association 273, 199–208.